ALASKA'S NEWSPAPER

| Updated: 10:13 PM

Permanent Fund managers hopeful worst is over

STOCKS HIT: This year's lower dividend is projected at $1,400.

The Alaska Permanent Fund's investments had a return of negative 4.93 percent in the quarter that ended March 31, with most of that decline occurring in the first part of the three-month period, managers of the state oil wealth savings account said.

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As of March 31, the total value of the fund's stocks, bonds, real estate and other investments was $27.4 billion, down $1.4 billion from Dec. 31. The stock market rally that began in March has raised the value since then, however, with the investments worth $29.1 billion as of Wednesday.

"It's too early to say we're out of the woods, but it feels good to have seen a few weeks of positive returns," said Michael J. Burns, chief executive of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp. "We're not calling the bottom of the market yet, but we are hopeful that the worst is behind us."

Almost half of the fund is invested directly in the stock market. During the January-March quarter, its U.S. stocks fell 9.5 percent, with foreign stocks down 9.6 percent and global stocks off 11.6 percent, the fund said.

U.S. bonds compose about one-fourth of the fund's investments, and they were up 0.2 percent for the quarter. Its real estate -- one-eighth of the fund -- showed a 0.1 percent return. The fund is on a July through June budget year, so the just-completed quarter is its third quarter of the year.

For the first nine months of its budget year, the fund's profits used to calculated the state's annual Permanent Fund dividend were a negative $2.3 billion. If that figure holds, this year's dividend would be about $1,400, compared with last year's record $2,069. The dividend is based on profits averaged over five years, not a single year's profits.

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