Increase in PFD recipients has officials guessing why

The state said roughly 628,000 people are eligible for a dividend this year. That's 12,285 more people than received a dividend last year.

Last year, 16,072 more people received a dividend than the year before -- the biggest surge in a decade.

So far, no one seems able to explain this trend. The increases -- beginning in 2007 -- greatly exceed the state's population growth. For example, the number of 2008 dividends was three times the increase in the state's population.

Consider that the birth rate hasn't exploded and at least until the end of last year, more people were leaving the state than moving in.

So what accounts for all these new dividends?

Debbie Bitney, the state's Permanent Fund division director, thinks one factor could be the recent increase in the size of the payouts. Maybe it prompted eligible Alaskans who hadn't bothered applying in the past to sign up.

However, the huge pool applicants in 2008 had no way of knowing at the time they were set to receive the biggest distribution in the history of the Permanent Fund, the state's oil wealth savings account. The state issued record $2,069, dividends and tacked on the Palin administration's one-time $1,200 rebate to take the sting off high energy prices.

A PUZZLE

Economists questioned this week said the increase in PFD recipients is a puzzle and could only speculate at this point.

"Those are interesting numbers" said Neal Fried, a state economist.

No demographic data is available yet about this year's applicants, but a few interesting trends popped up during last year's big run-up in PFD filings.

Fried and other economists, intrigued by the increase, suggested:

• Maybe it's the military. For example, state records showed a 35 percent increase in Armed Forces applicants that year.

• Maybe it's people who apply even though they no longer live here year round: State data shows showed an increase -- by about 17 percent -- of Alaskans who said they were absent more than 90 days when they filed for last year's dividend.

• Maybe the numbers are off. Right now, for example, the number of 2009 dividends is an estimate that could turn out to be wrong.

• Maybe part of the increase is due to a rash of fraud or people stretching the state's dividend eligibility criteria.

SCRATCH ONE THEORY

What's clear about the recent increase is that it isn't a flood of newcomers or first-time applicants.

The PFD division keeps an exact count of first-time applicants. While tens of thousands of new applicants file each year, the overall level of first-time applications doesn't fluctuate a lot.

Take last year, for example. Roughly 1,000 more first-time applicants applied than in the previous year. That accounted for only 3 percent of the 16,072 additional dividends mailed out in 2008.

Pinning down PFD trends can be difficult because the numbers are constantly fluctuating.

The actual number of PFD dividends handed out for each year is always changing because of appeals.

For example, any eligible Alaskan over 18 can apply to receive a past dividend that a parent failed to apply for on his or her behalf, Bitney said.

The number of 2009 dividends, still a rough estimate, could end up changing significantly, due to appeals, pending investigations or inaccurate projections.

But for now, local economists say the recent run-up in dividends is a mystery.

"The population increase has been gradual. That's why I was surprised," said Susan Fison, an Anchorage economist and demographer.

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Find Elizabeth Bluemink online at adn.com/contact/ebluemink or call 257-4317.