As the meat of the 2010 fishing season -- i.e., salmon fishing -- gets rolling this weekend, Southcentral anglers wonder whether tottering king salmon returns will worsen or limp back to respectability.

Across the region, king returns were dismal last year. But anglers inclined to see the glass half full can grasp a few slivers of hope amid the gloom:

• Improving numbers. After four consecutive years of declining king returns on the Deshka River, one of the region's biggest king producers, the numbers turned up last year -- increasing 58 percent. Keep in mind they turned up from a miserable 2008, which saw the worst return since the Deshka weir was installed in 1995. And even with the increase and a state shutdown of the fishery in June, biologists missed the minimum escapement goal for the second consecutive year.

• Brighter forecast. State biologists predict 31,000 kings will return to the Deshka this season. Combined with an average harvest of 6,800 fish, that means the Deshka should easily meet its minimum escapement goal of 13,000 kings. Fish and Game describes its forecast as "cautious," laced with concerns about the 4-year-old kings, whose parents laid eggs amid severe flooding in 2006. That may have wiped out fish that would have returned. Four-year-olds typically make up less than a fifth of the run.

• Aggressive action. Before the first king arrived, Fish and Game shut down the Chuitna, Lewis and Theodore rivers on the west side of Cook Inlet to preserve the few remaining kings.

• Can it get any worse? Perhaps the weak Kenai River king runs have bottomed out. Last year, the early run of 11,334 fish was the lowest since 2002, while the late run of 25,688 was the worst since the in-river sonar went into operation in 1987.

This weekend may offer a some hints of whether gloom or optimism looms -- though it's still very early.

Looking for optimism? Consider that Stephen and Daniel Warta, fishing with Andy Couch of Fishtale River Guides in Palmer, landed 30- and 22-pound kings at the Deshka a week ago. And on the Kenai Peninsula, the weir on the Anchor River near Homer is showing fish, with 51 through Tuesday. A few miles north, the Kenai River sonar counted 71.

But don't get carried away.

Couch fished the Deshka on Monday and counted five to 10 boats at various times.

"We did not see anyone else even hook a salmon," he reported on his website. "It looked like the salmon that had been available the past few days may have moved on upriver, and few additional salmon had replaced them."

Any angler preferring grim news need look no further than the king salmon returns on an array of Southcentral rivers:

• Anchor River: Down from 12,016 in 2004 to 3,504 last year -- a 71 percent decline.

• Deshka River: Down from 37,725 in 2005 to 7,533 in 2008 -- an 80 percent decline.

• Kenai River Early Run: Down from 23,326 in 2006 to 11,334 last year -- a 51 percent decline.

• Kenai River Late Run: Down from 52,375 in 2004 to 25,688 last year -- a 51 percent decline.

• Ayakulik River on Kodiak: Down from 24,742 in 2004 to 2,615 last year -- an 89 percent decline.

• Karluk River on Kodiak: Down from 7,525 in 2004 to 752 in 2008 -- a 90 percent decline.

Spot a trend?

"A lot of times, it's really hard to tell what the cause is," said northern Cook Inlet management biologist Dave Rutz. "We see this every 10 to 15 years. In the early 1990s, we saw the same thing -- and then, all of a sudden, they popped up and we were getting escapements over the top end of our goals."

Each season, three different age groups of kings return from salt water. Four-year-olds make up about 17 percent of the return and 5-year-olds make up roughly 55 percent. The rest are 6-year-old fish. Any optimism stems from the fact there was "a huge number" of 4-year-olds among last year's returners, Rutz said. That class reaches 5 this year, the dominant age group.

Because of that, Fish and Game didn't begin 2010 with restrictions on Deshka anglers, as it did last year when fishing hours were limited and kings could only be retained three days a week.

Still, Rutz insisted, "It's not so much a bounce back. It's still a pretty low estimate."

It'll take about three weeks until biologists can get a reading on whether their estimates are high, low or spot-on. In a typical year, about a quarter of the run is past the weir by June 12.

"If we see some real problems by that point," Rutz said, "we'll probably take some restrictive action."

One focus will be how many 4-year-olds return. This is the first class of king returnees that survived massive floods in 2006 when their parents laid the eggs from which they hatched.

Reach reporter Mike Campbell at mcampbell@adn.com or 257-4329.