What Alaska needs in the governor's office in the next four years is, above all, a leader who wants to put the state in command of its own future.

Alaska stands to lose if all we can do is react to circumstances created by others, whether those others are the federal government, the oil and gas industry, international shipping or climate change.

Alaska stands to gain if we take the initiative, change circumstances and make things happen in our favor.

Of the three major Republican candidates, Bill Walker best fits that job description.

Gov. Sean Parnell has done an overall solid job in succeeding Sarah Palin. His style is sensible and businesslike, and that was a needed antidote to the continuing drama of Palin's last year in office. He deserves credit for his merit scholarship program to help Alaskans pay for higher education here, and for the "Choose Respect" campaign to reverse Alaska's epidemic of sexual assault and domestic violence.

Parnell has been steady, and if elected in his own right might build his own administration to replace the one he inherited from Palin.

But so far, on the question of the gas line or other economic initiatives, Parnell has seemed passive, waiting for events to unfold rather than driving them. His commitment to the AGIA process leaves Alaska in a state of uncertainty -- maybe we're getting closer to a gas line, maybe we're getting closer to further study. Letting the industry drive the process does not seem to bother the governor, even though time may not be on Alaska's side.

Former Rep. Ralph Samuels has been something of a voice in the wilderness in this campaign, an odd lot for a personable, thoughtful politician who is a mainstream Republican, pro-business and keen on development.

Samuels' message is honest but dark -- Alaska likely has missed its window of opportunity for a gas line by dithering with Palin's AGIA process, faces declining oil production and therefore the need to slash spending for Medicaid and other programs and overhaul the rural education system.

He offers more prophet's warning than politician's promise. That's useful, but incomplete. For example, on rural education he suggests that regional schools might be the answer but isn't sure how to get there except to start the conversation. He wants to cut oil taxes and spending, but less revenue and less spending take us where, exactly? That's not clear.

Former Valdez mayor and oil and gas attorney Bill Walker knows exactly where he wants to go with the gas line, from the North Slope to Valdez with spurs to serve Alaska's energy needs. He wants the state to take the initiative in building a line, giving the producers no reason to keep Alaska gas from the market.

He wants the state to drive the project and he wants to keep it in Alaska -- and ship the gas to a hungry Asian market.

Will it work? No guarantees.

But the prospects for a paying project to Lower 48 and Canadian markets seem less sure than they did even five years ago. Shale gas is coming to the fore in North America and Europe. That's not a lock either, but such development there may profoundly change the market. The line to Valdez looks like it has more to offer than a parochial bumper sticker slogan.

What's most appealing about Walker's determination is the reason for it -- Walker shares the late Wally Hickel's conviction that Alaska is a sovereign state, not a colony. Alaskans should be making their own destiny, not politely waiting for multinational corporations to define that destiny for us. Walker understands how those corporations work and that they will serve their own interests, which may not be Alaska's interests. He doesn't want to wait for those interests to align -- he wants to align them, and on the state's terms.

Like Hickel, he wants economic development. Like Hickel, he's got boomer in him. Like Hickel at his best, Walker's boomer mentality is tempered by a vision of Alaska that sees beyond the next dollar. For example, he sees "red flags" in the huge Pebble gold and copper prospect in the world's richest salmon headwaters, and notes that it's "exponentially" bigger than any mining project in Alaska. We'd better know what we're doing. Here he comes closer to Jay Hammond's axiom that it's better to err on the side of conservation than on the side of development.

In the end, the Republican race boils down to Walker and Parnell. The safe choice is Gov. Parnell. The more promising choice is Bill Walker.