Forecasters see growth in Anchorage population, economy

The forecast looks at eight areas and makes predictions through 2014. Here are some highlights:

• Population steadily growing. Anchorage's population is projected to grow from the 2010 Census figure of 296,767 to 309,011 by 2014. Growth will decelerate slightly "as the U.S. economy improves and migration gains slow," said the report.

• Employment numbers increase. After declining from the high of 151,900 jobs in 2008, the number of employed people in Anchorage should reach 152,700 this year and 158,500 in 2014. The loss of construction jobs from a high in 2005 has leveled off, said the report, and health care employment continues to grow regardless of the larger economic picture.

• Total personal income going up. Total personal income in Anchorage was $13.9 billion in 2009, the last year for which complete data is available. That was a slight decline from 2008, but the AEDC foresees it increasing to $17.3 billion by 2014.

• Air passenger and freight volume recovering. After a steep drop in passenger volume at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in 2009, 2010 numbers increased slightly and are projected to continue to grow. However, it will be 2014, the report says, before those numbers meet or exceed the high of 5.34 million passengers reached in 2008. Air freight volume has already regained most of its big loss in 2009, when it dropped to 2,136 tons, and is expected to hold steady and grow slowly to an estimated 3,059 tons in 2014, short of 3,096 tons recorded for 2006.

• Building permit values slowly rebound. The value of Anchorage permit applications hit a high of $798 million in 2006. It fell to $395 million last year. The report says those values "will increase for the first time in five years in 2011 and continue to rise at about 5 percent a year," reaching $482 million by 2014.

• Port of Anchorage freight volume shows solid growth. The high-water mark for freight coming through the Port of Anchorage was 5.1 million short tons in 2005. The report notes that overall tonnage is up an estimated 20 percent in the first four months of this year and expects "solid growth" for the rest of 2011. However, the growth is predicted to be incremental to 4.44 million short tons in 2014.

• Visitor numbers come back after head tax flap. "Statewide early indicators for 2011 are generally positive and total visitor numbers are expected to be up slightly from last year," says the report. The authors note an increase in bed taxes collected in 2010 and the arrival every other Friday of Holland America's cruise ship Amsterdam. "Waters have calmed" since imposition of cruise passenger head taxes at ports a few years ago caused ships to go elsewhere, says the report.

• Oil prices continue to rise. World demand for oil should remain high, "a clear net benefit to the Alaska and Anchorage economies," says the report, "though not without its downside in the form of higher transportation ... heating and electricity generation costs for rural Alaska in particular." The report predicts an average cost per barrel of $102 this year, close to the average of $100 per barrel in 2008, rising to $116 a barrel in 2014.

More information and the complete report is available at aedcweb.com.

Reach Mike Dunham at mdunham@adn.com or 257-4332.