"Pinks, chums and sockeyes all are going to be under forecast," said Geron Bruce, deputy director of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game's commercial fisheries division.
For sockeyes, the big-money fish, that's due to a disappointing take of 20 million sockeyes from Bristol Bay, 8 million shy of projections.
Elsewhere, sockeye catches topped the forecasts for Chignik, Cook Inlet and Copper River. Kodiak was average. But those fisheries combined didn't make up for the shortage at Bristol Bay. State managers predicted a total sockeye catch this year of 45 million reds.
Chum runs to most Gulf regions also are smaller than expected, especially in Southeast and Prince William Sound.
"We're going to be short on the chums," Bruce said. The forecast called for a harvest of 20 million.
"We've had some nice chum returns to the AYK region (Arctic Yukon Kuskokwim), and they've had better fishing there than for a long time. And they're enjoying better prices like everyone else. So that's really a plus," he added.
Blame those hard-to-predict pinks for causing the season's biggest shortfall. The forecast called for a catch of 133 million pinks this year, but it's only halfway there. Bruce said good catches are still coming from Southeast, but it's pokey in other regions.
"Southeast may come close to the forecast of 55 million pinks, but I think we will be lucky to get that," Bruce said. "Prince William Sound was at 25 million, and they might make up some ground towards 38 million pinks. Kodiak's catch is likely to end up around 20 million, about 8 million below forecast." Bruce added.
So what might be the final tally for Alaska's 2011 salmon season? Lots of pinks and cohos remain to be counted, but the best "guess-timate" is 160 million to 165 million fish.
"Still, it will rank in the top 20 percent of Alaska's salmon harvests since statehood," Bruce said. "And there's been pretty good distribution all around the fishing regions. Not like last year when it was really concentrated in Bristol Bay and Prince William Sound, and other areas really had subpar seasons."
By Aug. 19, the Alaska salmon count stood at 372,000 kings, 12.8 million chums, 1.7 million silvers, 94.7 million pinks and 39.6 million sockeyes -- for a total of just over 149 million fish.
SALMON PRICES UP
The sales value of Alaska salmon is showing gains for all products that go to world markets. The Annual Salmon Price Report from the state Department of Revenue tracks wholesale prices for six product forms: fresh and frozen headed/gutted fish, fresh and frozen fillets, canned salmon and roe.
A look at average values for all of 2010 and the first four months of 2011 shows big increases: Cases of canned sockeye (talls) averaged about $123 last year; through April, the value was $145 a case.
The bulk of Alaska's salmon is sold headed/gutted and frozen. For kings, that price averaged $3.63 last year and $4.12 through April. Fresh kings jumped more than $2 to $9.23.
The wholesale average for frozen sockeye fillets increased from $4.92 in 2010 to $6.29 this year. Frozen pinks averaged $1.29 a pound last year. Alaska chums continued their steady price gains, with frozen fish averaging $1.60 last year, and $1.78 through April. The wholesale price for fresh chums has increased 45 cents a pound over two years.
The biggest gains are seen in salmon roe prices. Pink roe averaged $9.94 a pound through April, up more than $4 from 2010. Sockeye roe increased from $5.56 to $7.01, and wholesale prices for chum roe averaged $9.17 last year compared with $13.50 through April. Find the Salmon Price Reports at www.tax.alaska.gov.
Laine Welch is a Kodiak-based fisheries journalist. Her Fish Radio programs can be heard on stations around the state. Her column appears on Sundays in the Daily News. This material is protected by copyright. For information on reprinting or placing on your website or newsletter, contact msfish@alaska.com.
Important warning about e-mails purporting to be from the adn.com staff.