Knik bridge is a key to growth in Alaska

For the past 10 years, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough has experienced phenomenal growth, and according to the U.S. Census, it is in the top 1 percent of fastest growing "counties" (that's Lower-48 talk for a borough) in the United States. Every socioeconomic forecast that we've found shows that the Matanuska-Susitna Borough will continue to grow (Institute for Social and Economic Research, Woods and Poole, and Alaska Department of Labor). All predict that the population in the Mat-Su will double in the next 25 years.

It is important to note the trend was not fully recognized in 2009. In fact, the ISER 2009 projection had underestimated the Matanuska-Susitna population by 11 percent. (In late 2009, ISER projected the Mat-Su population at 80,300 and the subsequent 2010 United States Census data showed that the ISER projection missed 9,437 people in the Mat-Su valleys and an additional 2,626 in Anchorage).

Looking forward 25 years, ISER's 2009 prediction was that the borough population will be 170,800 (bear in mind that the actual population in 2010 was 11 percent higher than they used in their 2009 model). The Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority population study showed that the population was more likely to be 190,976. When applying the ISER growth rate and using the U.S. Census numbers, we found that the projections were nearly identical (U.S. Census numbers would put ISER's prediction around 190,873 versus KABATA's prediction of 190,976). But regardless, even the most conservative data set shows that the Matanuska-Susitna Borough will be creating 15 new "Palmer-sized" towns in the next 25 years.

So where will these people drive? Will they all stay in the Mat-Su Borough? Doubtful. Research shows that higher paying jobs will largely remain in Anchorage, while affordable Mat-Su land and housing will continue to attract residents -- Alaskans willing to sacrifice drive time and fuel costs for a new single-family home that, according to the Alaska Housing Finance Corp., averages $168,000 cheaper than in Anchorage.

As of 2010, the traffic counter at the Eklutna bridge on the Glenn Highway logged nearly 30,000 cars every day. Without a Knik Arm Crossing, traffic on the Glenn will likely double in the next 25 years. With the highway nearly at capacity, adding another 30,000 trips per day would require expanding the Glenn and Parks highways from Eagle River to Wasilla to six lanes, and the Glenn Highway from Eagle River to Anchorage to eight lanes. This could cost the state in excess of a billion dollars of much needed transportation money. A better option is to build the Knik Arm Crossing using private equity.

The bridge will serve regular commuting traffic and provide a second connection in cases of Glenn Highway road closures, emergencies, and evacuation. It will lower freight costs to Alaska's Interior, saving gas and lower emissions. During construction it will provide thousands of jobs and thousands more after its completion. It will aid in opening the western side of Cook Inlet, which includes nearly 47 percent of all land in the Kenai Peninsula Borough. It's the only transportation project that will produce revenue for other transportation projects statewide.

I was recently asked, "What scenario could I see in which the Knik Arm Crossing would not be needed?" I could only see one: If you closed the door, pulled the blinds, and turned on the sign that said "Alaska is closed for business," then you wouldn't need the bridge.

However, I believe in Alaska's future, its economy, and its people. If you bet on Alaska, then the bridge is needed.

Michael Foster is chairman of the board of the Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority.