Obama forecasts dire effects of looming budget cuts

The New York TimesFebruary 19, 2013 


Surrounded by first responders who may be impacted by looming budget cuts, U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during an event at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building February 19, 2013 in Washington, DC. (Olivier Douliery/Abaca Press/MCT)


WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama on Tuesday painted a dire picture of federal government operations across the U.S. should automatic budget cuts hit on March 1: FBI agents furloughed, criminals released, flights delayed, teachers and police officers laid off and parents frantic to find a place for children locked out of day care centers.

"Federal prosecutors will have to close cases and let criminals go," Obama said, flanked by law enforcement officers at the White House. "Tens of thousands of parents will have to scramble to find child care for their kids."

While the effects might ultimately be significant, many are unlikely to be felt immediately, officials said Tuesday after the president's remarks. Rather, they will ripple gradually across the federal government as agencies come to grips in the months ahead with across-the-board cuts to all their programs.

Administration officials insisted that government contractors and state governments will begin receiving word quickly about programs that must be reduced or terminated. The Defense Department is planning to give notice to 800,000 civilian workers Wednesday that furloughs might be necessary if the automatic cuts go into effect.

Amy Brundage, a White House spokeswoman, said: "Whether these impacts are felt immediately or in the near future, they are already having negative effects on the economy. And there are Americans who are working today who could lose their jobs if these cuts go into effect."

But officials conceded that day care centers are almost certainly not going to be padlocked March 1. Border patrols will be staffed throughout that day and the days to come. Federal agents will continue to conduct investigations, and criminals will not immediately be "let go," as Obama suggested.

"The scheduling will depend on what the workload is, what the cases are, what can wait," said Nanda Chitre, a spokeswoman for the Department of Justice. "There's going to be impact all across law enforcement. But we've tried to give as much flexibility as possible."

In recent years a gridlocked Washington has seemed to need the threat of drop-dead deadlines and potentially grave consequences -- workers laid off, parks and monuments closing, services disappearing overnight, federal benefit checks delayed -- to get anything done.

Think of the last-minute deal to avert the so-called "fiscal cliff" last month, or the one that was struck in 2011 to raise the nation's debt ceiling just as the possibility of default loomed.

Now, with both Democrats and Republicans hoping to avert the automatic cuts, which are known as the sequester, both sides are emphasizing their immediacy, with Obama warning on Tuesday that "just 10 days from now, Congress might allow a series of automatic, severe budget cuts to take place."

But even if March 1 arrives without a deal to avert the cuts, it may be some time before many take effect. White House officials have said that the planned cuts would take $85 billion out of the budget this year. But the actual effect of cuts felt this year might be only about half that much, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated in a recent blog post.

The office wrote that "discretionary outlays will drop by $35 billion and mandatory spending will be reduced by $9 billion this year as a direct result of those procedures; additional reductions in outlays attributable to the cuts in 2013 funding will occur in later years."

In the short term, officials at a variety of agencies said, the automatic cuts will take some time to put in place as officials readjust their priorities.

In his remarks, Obama said repeatedly that "this is not an abstraction."

"There are people whose livelihoods are at stake," he said. "There are communities that are going to be impacted in a negative way."

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