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Study up to outsmart moose this season Calling big bulls requires skill, a hefty stick Caribou hunters may have to travel farther Mulchatna caribou herd offers hunt option Brown bear guide keeps tradition alive Kodiak deer prediction looking good List of 2000-2001 hunting permit recipients Hunting Guide cover
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Caribou hunters may have to travel farther Bust cycle likely to continue for Nelchina herd
By KEN MARSH Caribou meat on the table may be harder to come by this fall for Southcentral Alaska hunters. The Nelchina caribou herd, Southcentral’s most accessible source of caribou steak, burger and sausage, is in decline, down from 50,000 animals five years ago to roughly 30,000 now. As a result, the state will issue only 2,000 Tier II hunting permits this season – 6,000 fewer than last year. Startling as the herd’s decline may seem, state game biologists say that such trends are not unusual. "Historically, caribou herds cycle," says Glennallen wildlife biologist Bob Tobey. "We try to keep a more stable population by increasing harvests when herds increase, and reduce harvests during times of decline." Tobey cites the usual suspects in the Nelchina herd’s current downward trend. He says that too many caribou competing for limited food has led to a decline in body condition in many, and has resulted in fewer calves. On top of that, recent severe winters have conspired with burgeoning wolf numbers to take a heavy toll on Nelchina caribou. Deaths in radio-collared animals indicate that unusually large numbers died last winter. "Deep snow cut down energy reserves and made them more vulnerable to predation by wolves," says Tobey. Predation by wolves on calving grounds is another problem. Studies indicate that, on average, far fewer caribou calves born in 1999 survived between June and October due to heavy predation. Dismal as all of this sounds, Tobey fears that the immediate future of the Nelchina herd may only get worse. "The herd is in a definite decline," he says. It will likely take years for depleted range to regenerate to the point where caribou can rebound. Meanwhile, hunter demand for Nelchina herd caribou remains high since the animals are accessible from the Glenn, Richardson and Denali highways. "Applications typically exceed 17,000 for Tier II permits," says Tobey. "When anyone could register for a Tier I permit, over 25,000 hunters received permits." For now – and probably for years to come – the supply of Nelchina herd permits remains far below hunters’ demands. Question is, where is a Southcentral Alaska caribou hunter to go? Overall, the best alternative for Southcentral hunters may be the Mulchatna caribou herd, says Jim Woolington, a state biologist located in Dillingham. "This herd probably peaked in 1996 with about 200,000 animals," says Woolington. Currently, the herd remains strong at roughly 160,000 to 180,000, according to an ongoing census. Bag limits and open seasons for hunters targeting the Mulchatna herd are liberal. Residents may take up to five caribou, nonresidents are allowed two. Hunting seasons begin August 1 and run through April 15. The challenge lies in reaching the herd, whose range beyond the far side of Cook Inlet from Anchorage spans game management units 9, 17, 18 and 19. "Access is primarily by aircraft for non-local hunters," says Woolington. Still, for those who can afford the cost of Bush air charters, the odds of success with the Mulchatna herd are good. "The Mulchatna is second in the state for reported harvest," says Woolington. "Hunters take 5,000 or 6,000 caribou there annually." For now, hunting for Mulchatna caribou remains good. However, Woolington cautions that the herd is on the back side of its peak. "Right now the herd may well be in decline," says Woolington, who adds that prior to the 1996 boom, the herd was historically much smaller. Hunters may see reduced harvest measures implemented over the next few years should the herd begin to decline. A future caribou hunting option for Southcentral hunters may include the Fortymile caribou herd. The herd, which in the 1920s numbered 500,000 animals, has experienced its share of boom and bust times. "Back then, the herd ranged from central Yukon Territory to west of Steese," says Tok biologist Craig Gardner. "By the late 1960s, it was declining like a rock." As with the Nelchina herd today, Gardner says the decline was likely the result of over-grazing combined with a series of severe winters and heavy predation by wolves. By 1973, the Fortymile herd had dwindled to 5,000 or 6,000 animals. Since then, hunter harvests have been curtailed to allow for a 10 percent annual growth rate for the herd. A census conducted in July 1999 determined that the herd had grown to 33,110 caribou, enough to continue a five-year reduced harvest plan (implemented by the state in 1995) of 150 animals per year through registration permit hunts. The best news is this: The five-year plan will conclude following the 2000 hunting season. After that, Gardner expects the state to approve a harvest in 2001 of 850 caribou from the herd. "That’s a big increase," says Gardner, "but still incredibly conservative. What we want to see is a continued 10 percent growth rate." Gardner is optimistic about the Fortymile herd’s capacity to rebound. "This herd once had a huge range," he says. "The beauty of it all is that range is still there and in good shape."
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©2000 Anchorage Daily News
