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Iditarod web sites
See related pages:
http://www.adn.com/pf/mushing
http://www.iditarod.com/
http://www.adn.com/iditarod/
They say that close only counts in hand grenades and horseshoe pitching. How about Iditarod predicting? I did not pick the winner of the 27th annual Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race ... but I was close. Way back when (March 5), I said that Martin Buser of Big Lake would win this year's race. He finished second. Doug Swingley of Lincoln, Mont., won, and I had him third. That's two close ones - in the wrong order. It pretty much always works out this way. Unless you are clairvoyant, there is no way on earth you can predict the top 20 finishers - the money spots - in the Iditarod, and expect to be right. However, following two years in a row in which I correctly named 19 of the 20 leading finishers, at least I was in the ballpark again. I gave you 20 names, and 17 of those names were cooperative enough to wind up in the top 20. The three who I picked who did not make it were Dee Jonrowe of Willow, the perpetual top contender, who scratched; John Barron of Montana Creek, a sure-fire top 20 finisher, who scratched; and Peryll Kyzer of Willow, who took some time off from the race and did not match her previous high placings. But hey, stuff happens ... that's why they play the games, and all that jazz. Some mushers in the top 20 fooled me by doing better than I thought they would (notably Charlie Boulding, Paul Gebhardt, Sven Engholm and Vern Halter), and some mushers I thought would do better finished lower in the money positions than I expected (notably Rick Mackey and Joe Garnie). Also, beforehand I found it impossible to rate Ed Iten of Kotzebue, since generally speaking mushers who take breaks from the Iditarod do not fare well immediately when they come back. After seven years away from the Iditarod and a single 14th-place finish, Iten showed up again and placed 10th. To refresh your memory, here is the order I predicted for the top 20 before the race began: 1) Buser; 2) Mitch Seavey; 3) Swingley; 4) Jeff King; 5) Jonrowe; 6) John Baker; 7) Ramey Smyth; 8) Mackey; 9) Garnie; 10) Rick Swenson; 11) Boulding; 12) Linwood Fiedler; 13) Barron; 14) Tim Osmar; 15) Halter; 16) Kyzer; 17) Bill Cotter; 18) Gebhardt; 19) Engholm; 20) Dave Sawatzky. And this is the way the final standings read: 1) Swingley; 2) Buser; 3) Halter; 4) Swenson; 5) Boulding; 6) Gebhardt; 7) King; 8) Baker; 9) Engholm; 10) Iten; 11) Seavey; 12) Smyth; 13) Fiedler; 14) Cotter; 15) Sawatzky; 16) Mackey; 17) Garnie; 18) Osmar; 19) Harald Tunheim; 20) Christopher Knott. Boulding, for one, certainly noticed the disparity between where I placed him and where he placed. "Made a liar out of you, didn't I?" he said to me under the burled arch on Nome's Front Street. Of course I never would have dropped Boulding so far down if he hadn't confided before the race how worried he was and how his dogs just didn't seem ready. Cross his heart and hope to die. I couldn't decide if he was being southern-football-coach self-deprecating, or honest. He said he was being honest, but it turned out the other way, anyhow. I'm not complaining about scoring 17 names, mind you, but this might have been the deepest field of all, and the 1,100-mile run took its toll on a number of mushers. This was a rugged ride to Nome. Some mushers' teams were torn up by the terrible terrain in the early going. Some got slowed by late storms. Some of the conservatively starting mushers - Halter, for one - threaded their way through the crowd and ended up with terrific finishes. Just in case we forgot - mushers and Iditarod observers alike - that no matter how much you plan and train, the trail still holds the cards. Not that the lesson will stop me. Maybe next year I'll predict the whole field in order. Talk to me in March. * This column is the opinion of Daily News sports editor Lew Freedman
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