Science

Prominent physicist does climate science a disservice in ‘A Farewell to Ice’

A Farewell to Ice: A Report from the Arctic

By Peter Wadhams; Oxford University Press; 2017; 256 pages; $15.95

At this point, several things can be said with certainty. The Earth's climate is changing, global temperatures are trending upward, the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet and human activity is the primary driver of this.

The role that carbon dioxide plays in trapping heat in the Earth's atmosphere has been clearly understood since the late 19th century, as has been the recognition that adding CO2 to the atmosphere increases the amount of warmth unable to escape into space, gradually raising the overall temperature of the planet.

Peter Wadhams, a professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, states it plainly in his recent book, "A Farewell to Ice." "Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere causes a temperature rise. There is no way out of this conclusion. It is basic physics. To deny it is like denying gravity or asserting the Earth is flat. Yet there are still climate change skeptics who deny any association between carbon dioxide levels and temperature." (Author's italics and bold face.)

The debate over climate change is political. It is not something lacking scientific evidence (it's the deniers of climate change who lack that). Yet unfortunately, there are those on the science side who go overboard, taking extremist positions that distort the public's understanding of what is transpiring. In the process, they offer themselves as quick fodder for climate deniers who primarily attack researchers because they cannot disprove the research.

Dr. Wadhams is one such scientist. This book, mostly written in early 2016, offers a dire prediction on page 84: "If we look at the Arctic Death Spiral it is clear, in fact it is blindingly obvious, that the summer Arctic sea ice does not have long to live. The downward trend brings the summer months to zero ice cover in 2016 for an ice-free September and October, 2017 for an ice-free August to October, and 2018 for an ice-free July to November."  (Note: the "Arctic Death Spiral" refers to a spiral graph showing sea ice decline that's included in the book)

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The condition of the Arctic Ocean in 2018 remains to be seen, but we know what happened last year and this. In 2016 the ice during September (the time of year when it reaches its annual minimum extent) was tied with 2007 for the second lowest overall coverage on record. This year saw a slight improvement as the seventh lowest. Looking at the data, the trend remains steeply downward, but contrary to Wadhams' "blindingly obvious" assertion, the ice isn't all gone yet.

Why is this important? Because climate deniers do not debate facts, they look for errors by individuals that they can use to discredit the entire science. And Wadhams, who reiterated his prediction in an interview with the Guardian last year, has made himself the perfect straw man.

This is unfortunate, because Wadhams is a distinguished scientist with a half century of research on Arctic sea ice behind him, and this book is quite informative when the author sticks with what is known rather than leaping to conclusions.

The book opens with a chapter on how sea ice forms in the Arctic Ocean (and in a later chapter includes an explanation of why Antarctic sea ice forms differently). The molecular structure of the ice and its dynamic nature are also clearly explained. In subsequent chapters Wadhams reviews the geologic history of the planet, including the ice ages and periods of rapid warming (hint: every warming period has been triggered by a steep increase in greenhouse gases, especially CO2, but also methane, to which we will return). There is a discussion of atmospherics, how greenhouse gases maintain the optimal temperature for human life, and how altering the balance of these gases as humans have done quite relentlessly since the Industrial Revolution inevitably changes the climate.

This is followed by several chapters covering the loss of Arctic sea ice. While many researchers have documented the shrinking of the ice cap, it was Wadhams, working aboard submarines underneath it, who discovered the ice was not just receding around its perimeter but that it was thinning as well. This was an important contribution to our understanding of how quickly the Arctic sea ice is vanishing.

[Arctic sea ice isn't only sparser; it's younger and thinner too]

From here Wadhams proceeds through recent history where the loss of sea ice has indeed been frighteningly rapid, especially since 2000. There's a feedback loop wherein the loss of ice warms the surrounding waters, which hastens the loss of ice, and so forth. Of greater concern is the warming of waters off the coast of Siberia, where vast quantities of methane are believed to be trapped beneath permafrost lying underwater. Without ice to keep water temperatures frigid, the permafrost is melting, and if the methane is released at levels some researchers fear, all bets are off for just how hot the planet will become.

When Wadhams sticks to the known science, his work here is vital. But when he gets political he falters. He attacks the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for being too cautious and not embracing his worst-case views, yet his own predictions have already failed to come about. Then he justifiably goes after climate deniers, yet because of his rashness, he provides them with himself as an easy mark, one they've wasted no time taking advantage of.

Wadhams is a brilliant scientist at the end of his career. It's unfortunate that he has capped it with a book that does more damage than good to his cause. The planet is warming, the Arctic is melting, the sea ice will eventually vanish, and humans are largely responsible. All debate regarding this is political, not scientific. Exaggerating the present state of affairs for political purposes, however, doesn't serve anyone but the deniers. Wadhams has damaged his own legacy and unnecessarily complicated the outreach work of those trying to save us from disaster. Had he exercised restraint, his book would have been far more persuasive and significantly more accurate. It's a lost opportunity.

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