Before Sarah Palin resigned, she set an ambitious energy goal for the state: By the year 2025, Alaska aims to get half of our electricity from renewable sources. We've got a good head start: We're almost halfway to the goal, thanks to hydropower, especially in Southeast and Kodiak.
Here in the Railbelt, we're far behind, with three dams that supply about 10 percent of our power. But we have plenty of options to do our part in meeting the 50 percent target, according to a draft study for the Alaska Energy Authority.
The study looks at how the Railbelt can meet electricity demands as the supply of cheap natural gas shrinks and aging equipment needs to be replaced.
HYDRO OPTIONS
It confirms what has been obvious for 30 years -- the Susitna hydroelectric project, as originally envisioned, is much bigger than our isolated market can justify. Two smaller hydro projects, on the Knik River and at Lake Chakachamna, seem more promising.
Knik River, also known as the Glacier Fork project, would produce about as much power as a typical natural gas unit. Lake Chakachamna, across Cook Inlet from Anchorage, would be four or five times bigger than that, enough to handle about a third of today's Railbelt electric load.
The study says the state should keep a smaller version of Susitna -- call it Susitna-Lite -- in the mix, in case the other hydro projects don't pan out. Making the 50 percent renewable energy target will require one of the two big hydro projects, Chakachamna or Susitna.
Geothermal power from Mount Spurr is another encouraging prospect, according to the study. Located only 40 miles from existing power plants at Beluga, across Cook Inlet from Anchorage, the geothermal project could start contributing power as early as 2021.
WIND POWER
Wind power on Anchorage's Fire Island has a place in the state's draft plan, too -- thanks to government help. The 54-megawatt project wouldn't be economic without its $25 million state grant for a transmission line and subsidies available in the federal economic stimulus. Two potential wind projects in the Interior didn't make it into the plan, due to poor economics.
A little-known wind project in Nikiski will provide some renewable power, though. At just 15 megawatts, it's less than a third the size of Fire Island, but construction is expected to start next year.
Because wind power is intermittent, the power grid will require extra equipment to handle surges when wind generators kick on and off. That's just one of many transmission upgrades recommended in the study.
SHAKY NETWORK
Railbelt power lines are a shaky network, vulnerable to avalanches, with wooden poles and other aging elements that require modernization. "It's high-grade duct tape that holds all this stuff together," says Jim Strandberg, Alaska Energy Authority's manager for the Railbelt plan.
Whatever electricity is produced in the Railbelt, it should be used as efficiently as possible. The study estimates that electric demand could be cut by 8 percent with serious incentive programs for higher-efficiency lighting, appliances and commercial equipment.
CONSOLIDATE UTILITIES?
Railbelt utilities don't have the financial horsepower to fund all the needed investments, the study says, so government will need to help out. Planning and financing will be a lot easier if the Railbelt's six different utilities band together to make those new investments. By Lower 48 standards, one utility would easily cover the entire Railbelt, so the draft plan strongly urges some form of consolidation.
Utilities have long resisted the call to consolidate, though. In part, that's simply due to turf battles. But there's also a legitimate concern that areas now enjoying cheaper rates, such as Anchorage, would have to pay more for electricity so high-cost areas like Fairbanks can get some relief.
THE PATH AHEAD
It will take a strong push by the state to forge the consolidated utility arrangement recommended in the study. Gov. Parnell would be justified in telling the utilities they won't get any help with any of their individual projects until they merge some of their operations.
Meanwhile, the state can help scout out the various options. The state can gather information for permits that Lake Chakachamna might need, for example, or research the electrical efficiency measures that will work best for Alaska homes and businesses.
The new document is a good guide to planning electricity supplies for the Railbelt's long-term future, but following through on it will take more research, a lot of investment and some serious government prodding.
BOTTOM LINE: Getting half Alaska's electricity from renewables is ambitious, but options are available.