Sean Parnell is not the guy. Not for governor. Not now. Not in these iffy economic times. At best, he is Palin-lite; at worst, he's a big spender who parses the constitution to bend the rules. Alaska needs somebody steady at the helm, unafraid to rock the boat to get the ship of state back on course. Sean Parnell is not the guy.
Most clearly disagree with me. Recent polls show Parnell racking up 60 percent to 70 percent approval ratings in Alaska, give or take. Those will drop, but a snapshot survey in early May by Rasmussen Reports shows he handily would cream any of the Democrats running for the state's top elected office, and he is the early runaway favorite in the GOP primary.
How could it be otherwise? As Sarah Palin bailed out of the governor's office last year, the state was in a howling, insane uproar. Every day a new ethics complaint. Charges. Counter-charges. Scandals. Bloggers did this. Palin did that. Government careened out of control, disdainful of the law and wearing secrecy like armor. The eminently likable lieutenant governor, Parnell, was left holding the bag and was an immediate antidote for Palin's poison, a balm for her bluster.
Alaskans had wearied of the shenanigans, corner-cutting and the ear-splitting political noise that characterized Palin's brief, tumultuous tenure. A quiet, unassuming lieutenant governor, Parnell has proved to be a quiet, unassuming governor -- with notable, disquieting exceptions.
The No. 1 priority for Alaska's government today should be filling the trans-Alaska oil pipeline. Like it or not, the black gooey stuff underwrites 90 percent of state government and keeps the private sector ticking. Oil is Alaska's lifeblood. We are running out.
Throughput in the 800-mile oil pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez on Feb. 1, 2007, was 802,415 barrels a day. The first week in June, it averaged 650,000 a day, a 150,000-barrel-a-day decrease and far short of its 1988 peak of 2 million barrels daily. It is drying to a dribble at about 6 percent a year.
Palin did not improve the situation with her Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share oil tax in early 2007. A piece of heavy artillery in her war on the oil industry, ACES siphons off about $1 billion more annually than state government needs, making Alaska the oil province with among the highest marginal tax rates in the world, a sizable surplus and a great place to avoid doing business. Parnell has done little, if anything, to fill the pipeline. Instead, he contends ACES is working just fine.
It is working so well that BP warned its 2010 capital investment spending in Alaska would be off 15 percent this year -- well before its Gulf debacle. Conoco Phillips is not drilling an exploratory well this year. Parnell, at 47, was 2 years old when that last happened. Companies say they are going offshore to avoid Alaska taxes. Because of all that, more than 1,000 oil workers are idle.
Government's second important priority? A gas line to move North Slope natural gas south. Parnell's administration, as Palin's before it, falls well short on that count.
Palin, to avoid negotiations with the oil industry and to head off its ownership in a gas line, dreamed up the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act. Parnell is a dyed-in-the-wool AGIA fan who kept on his staff many of Palin's people, the ones who got us into this mess.
AGIA was a stinker then; it's a stinker now. The state eventually will have to negotiate whether it wants to or not -- on taxes and fiscal certainty -- and TransCanada, the company awarded AGIA's faux "license" and $500 million, has been joined by Exxon Mobil, not to build a gas line but to win Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval for one. So much for avoiding negotiations and industry involvement.
In addition, there have been other stumbles: rushing to hire a $2 million consultant in a deal that looks too much like a sweetheart arrangement; Parnell's abuse of the constitution to hire former lawmaker Nancy Dahlstrom for a $96,000-a-year job; his aversion to debates; his spending.
Some of that, in the long run, could be forgiven. But he fails on oil and gas. There is not more oil in the pipeline; there is less -- and a gas line is unlikely.
Sean Parnell is not the guy.
Paul Jenkins is editor of the Anchorage Daily Planet.
PAUL JENKINS
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