Sean Parnell is about to face voters for the first time since he took over as Alaska's governor after Sarah Palin resigned last year. He's run a low-key campaign that's big on highlighting polls showing he has a huge lead over his challengers in the Aug. 24 Republican primary election.
Parnell's main rivals in the primary, former state Rep. Ralph Samuels and Anchorage attorney Bill Walker, have spent months chipping away at him, trying to get traction for campaigns that have largely focused on oil and gas issues. They've presented alternatives to Parnell but it's far from clear that enough Republican primary voters are buying into them, or really even listening.
"The race hasn't really heated up much yet," said Jerry McBeath, political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He contrasted it to the fireworks of the Republican primary in 2006, when Sarah Palin, Frank Murkowski and John Binkley battled for the nomination.
Walker is running on construction of a natural gas pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez, maintaining there is an international market for the gas and that the project could be financed with state help. Walker is a former mayor of Valdez.
Samuels says the state spends too much, including on education and health care. He argues oil taxes are far too high and the state blew it on the gas pipeline. He calls for investing in a dam or small "bullet line" to deliver natural gas inside the state.
Parnell talks at campaign events about how he lowered taxes on cruise ships, proposed oil tax breaks and fights the federal government on resource and other issues. Parnell speaks of his "choose respect" campaign against domestic violence and sexual assault and his merit-based college scholarship program.
He labels Walker a one-issue candidate and says his opponents are too quick to call the Palin-backed Alaska Gasline Inducement Act a failure, saying there are good signs it could produce a big gas pipeline. He appears to be ramping up his campaign for the final weeks, starting to run television ads and making more appearances.
McBeath said Alaskans are exhausted by the drama of Palin's time as governor and political celebrity, and that Parnell, once dubbed the "oatmeal governor," has a personality suited to that. He said Parnell also enjoys the advantage of incumbency and "has not made any colossal mistakes."
Parnell opponents disagree. Parnell was bruised by a controversy over his hiring of two state legislators, who resigned from office to take newly created jobs as his advisers. The Alaska Constitution does not allow legislators to take jobs created while they were in office. Parnell said he was following advice given to him by the Department of Law, but his attorney general reversed the department's course and the advisers resigned amid questions about the legality.
"I don't think it's fatal but it does hurt; a lot of his strength is based on integrity, and I think this was getting into that area, personally," said Anchorage Republican pollster and political consultant Dave Dittman, who is not working for any of the candidates for governor at this point.
Dittman said Parnell benefits from having two main candidates, Walker and Samuels, splitting anti-incumbent sentiment. "It is pretty hard to un-elect an incumbent when the opposition is split," he said.
Parnell actually has five challengers in the Republican primary. The others, besides Samuels and Walker, are country musician and truck driver "Singin' Sam Little, Merica Hlatcu and Gerald Heikes. But it's Walker and Samuels who have launched visible, aggressive, campaigns.
SAMUELS WANTS TO SEE BUDGET CUTS
Samuels like to remind people that polls were way off in previous Alaska governor's races and believes a Parnell victory is far from assured. "Nobody is enthusiastic about (Parnell). He hasn't shown a lot of leadership," Samuels said.
Samuels, a former majority leader of the state House, said spending on state operations bulged about 10 percent under Parnell this year at the same time the North Slope oil production that fuels the state budget continues its steady downward slide. The state can't sustain this spending, he said.
"Education and Medicaid drives the budget of the state of Alaska, completely drives it. Samuels said. "You can just start having discussions on regionalizing schools and adding technology in the rural schools. On Medicaid it's tough decisions that need to be made. You cut programs, and you cut the people eligible in the programs."
Samuels fought with the administration of Sarah Palin and her lieutenant governor, Parnell, when he was in the Legislature. He opposed the ACES tax increase on the oil companies and was the only lawmaker in either house to vote against the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act, which eventually led to a state license for TransCanada to pursue construction of a natural gas pipeline with $500 million in state help.
PARNELL BLAMES EDUCATION, MEDICAID
Parnell said he made spending cuts when he was a legislator and that his budget for this year called for just a 2 percent growth in state agency spending. He said automatic funding formula increases in education and Medicaid drove it up, and that he's working with the Legislature on a task force to find Medicaid reductions.
Parnell's campaign says Samuels was House majority leader at a time when spending ballooned, pointing out he voted for a state operating budget in 2008 twice as big as when he was new to the Legislature in 2003 (Samuels did speak out against the spending at the time, saying "Alaskans will suffer" for it. But members of the Republican-led majority commit to their caucus to vote for the budget when it reaches the floor.)
Parnell talks often about his proposal to give tax credits as incentives for companies that drill in Alaska. Samuels argues the proposal doesn't go nearly far enough. Parnell characterizes it as part of a broader effort he's made to boost employment in the state.
"When it comes to tourism and our strained businesses here I went to work with a plan for tourism marketing to reduce the (cruise ship) head tax. Today the trade journals are talking about something different in Alaska ... when it comes to filling that pipeline I'm the only candidate (among himself, Walker and Samuels) with a plan to do it. This last session I proposed four different tax credits and benefits to increase oil production."
WALKER DEFENDS HIS 'ONE ISSUE'
Walker's campaign is about building an "all-Alaska" gas pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez, with the gas to be liquefied and shipped to Asia. He says he's accused of being a one-issue candidate, but that his issue is saving the state economy.
Walker invokes former governor Wally Hickel, who pushed the project for years. He said he spoke to Hickel three weeks before he died this spring.
"The last thing he said to me was 'Bill ..,' Well I won't tell you exactly what he said, he said, 'Build that damn pipeline, stop waiting for somebody else to do it, stop waiting for somebody else to make the decision about our future.' " Walker said.
Walkers said "the market will receive this, the market will do the financing, We may have to put in 20 percent for our equity position, $4 billion or $5 billion."
He maintained the oil companies who hold the North Slope gas leases will commit to pay to ship the gas down the pipeline. The Asia market offers the long-term contracts and expectation of profit that they need to ship the gas, he said.
"They can't sit back when there is a profitable deal on the table," Walker said, adding they could end up with a choice between selling and giving up their state leases.
Samuels says that's a pipe dream -- the Asia market won't support the huge project, and it cannot be financed because the oil companies won't commit the gas.
Samuels argues a natural gas pipeline through Canada isn't economical right now either because of the shale gas discoveries in the Lower 48. He says the state missed its chance by wasting time with the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act and should invest in a smaller in-state pipeline to bring cheaper energy to help the economy.
Parnell said he's keeping the options open, working on the possibility of an in-state gas pipeline or big pipelines to the Lower 48 market or Valdez. TransCanada said last week it received "multiple bids from major industry players and others for significant volumes" of gas.
But details of those bids are secret, and TransCanada said there will need to be negotiations with the oil companies. It is impossible to know at this point whether the bids represent real progress toward a natural gas pipeline.
Walker and Samuels argue that Parnell needs to obtain bid information from TransCanada and release it before the election, especially given that the state committed to paying $500 million for the effort. TransCanada and the oil companies consider the bids trade secrets. The Alaska Gasline Inducement Act exempts bid documents and other "proprietary information" from release under the state's public records disclosure laws.
Parnell said the process needs to play out. "That's the free market at work, we ought to let them pursue it, whether it's the North America option or the Valdez option. ... Bottom line, Alaska needs Alaska gas but politicians should not dictate it and cut off opportunities for others," he said.
A lot could change before the November general election. But if the polls are to be believed, the Aug. 24 Republican primary is likely to decide who Alaska's next governor is. "The general feeling is that we'll have yet another Republican governor unless the party splits," predicted McBeath, the UAF political science professor.
Find Sean Cockerham online at adn.com/contact/scockerham or call him at 257-4344.
Coming this week: A look at the Democrats.
By SEAN COCKERHAM
scockerham@adn.com