At the risk of making Tea Party Express folks even nuttier than usual, let me offer this: Lisa Murkowski should continue her race against Joe Miller for the U.S. Senate seat she holds. You read right. Against Joe Miller. For the U.S. Senate. As a write-in, if necessary.
When she graciously conceded the race to Miller last week after the GOP primary, Murkowski said it was for the good of Alaska. It was classy, but she was dreadfully wrong.
With Miller in the race, and her on the sidelines, Democrats have a real chance against Miller, who too easily is painted a far-right tea party whack-job and a Sarah Palin clone who channels Joe Vogler and tilts at windmills. Many people find him very scary. Miller's malarkey plays well to the GOP's sometimes irrational far right, living in its own fantasy world, but he may be unable to clinch the seat when the rest of Alaska catches on.
The Democrat in the Senate race, Scott McAdams of Sitka, has a real shot against Miller. (Rasmussen has him trailing by only 6 points.) He would not have a prayer against Murkowski.
If Miller's base showed up last week -- and the abortion notification ballot measure should have enticed them to the polls like bees to sugar -- the numbers are instructive. In the 2004 general election, Murkowski polled 149,446 votes of 307,371 cast in her first Senate race. Early results last week, showed only 104,346 votes had been cast in the Senate primary contest. There are hordes of voters on the right who did not vote Tuesday despite the notification measure. Did they believe -- as many did -- that Murkowski was a shoo-in and stayed home?
The question is: Would they show up in the general election and vote for Murkowski as a write-in. I think they would.
Who would they be? Those who already voted for Murkowski, for starters, and Democrats who wonder if their guy has a prayer with her in the race and who are satisfied with her moderate approach.
Then there are nonpartisans or undeclareds and almost anybody else in the galaxy of voters perplexed, even worried, by Miller's policies and campaign tactics, and concerned about the loss of Murkowski's Senate seniority.
Rural voters likely will show up in droves, prodded by a proposed constitutional amendment that would increase the Legislature's size by six seats, a direct benefit to them.
What is certain is that as people get to know Miller in the coming weeks, he will scare the bejeebers out of more of them and McAdams will look better if Murkowski sits it out. Miller is campaigning, after all, on cutting federal spending in Alaska -- where it is a huge chunk of the state budget and underwrites 30 percent of the state's jobs. In Fairbanks alone, federal money accounts for 28 percent of the city's economy. Despite that, Miller wants to cut spending here and pledges to eschew federal earmarks. Citizens Against Government Waste will love him, but Alaskans might be miffed when they learn that any federal money here will be spent at the president's direction -- or spent someplace else.
Miller counters that natural resources development will save us, but that's just more blah-blah-blah. When was the last big project brought on line in Alaska? You cannot remember? Neither can I. The only thing developed quickly in Alaska is a bad attitude. When the impact of what Miller is saying hits home, Murkowski's reasoned approach to things will look pretty good.
Murkowski must run, as a write-in if necessary. She needs to start now.
There, of course, is a chance of splitting the vote and ensuring McAdams wins. But nothing ventured, nothing gained. This is no time to be timid.
Many already believe McAdams would be a better pick than Miller.
Murkowski's getting back into the fray is worth the risk.
If Murkowski sits it out, Palin and the Tea Party Express could leave Alaska in a real fix, with two Democrats in the Senate, or with Miller, likely to marginalize himself after two minutes on the job, and Mark Begich. It would be years before Alaska recovers. Having Miller or a Democrat in Murkowski's seat as Alaska embarks on its uncertain fiscal future is frightening.
If Lisa Murkowski truly wants to do what is right for Alaska, she must never give up, never give in.
Paul Jenkins is editor of the Anchorage Daily Planet.
PAUL JENKINS
COMMENT