The leaders of the Iditarod Sled dog race reached the Bering Sea coastal village of Unalakleet Sunday morning, with mushers using a variety of strategies in an effort to outmaneuver each other over the final 300 miles of trail to the Nome finish. Up to eight teams remain in contention.
Don't ask me who is going to win – I don't have a clue at this point.
In the past three days of racing, all of the lead teams seem to have had a good run followed by an average run. Without a dominating team, all can be considered legitimate threats.
Did 13-hour runs sap Seavey, Burmeister
Mitch Seavey of Sterling seems to be running slightly faster than Nome's Aaron Burmeister, but both of them are now running long and risk being caught by the slightly-more-conservative teams on their heels.
Seavey and Burmeister ran almost 13 hours non-stop through the night in an effort to put distance between themselves and the chase pack of Aliy Zirkle of Two Rivers, Jake Berkowitz of Big Lake, Norwegian rookie Joar Ulsom -- plus the surging teams of four-time champion Jeff King of Denali Park and Ray Redington Jr. of Willow. Burmeister pulled his snow hook in Kaltag after just four hours rest following an immensely difficult run up the Yukon River, during which most mushers faced extreme overflow and snow-drifted trail. Seavey, who got an extra hour of rest in Kaltag over Burmeister, followed 30 minutes behind in a tight-knit group of mushers.
Most of the lead pack rested somewhere in the 90 miles between Kaltag and Unalakleet. Zirkle and defending champion Dallas Seavey of Willow stopped about 20 miles out of Kaltag for a break of nearly four hours. Berkowitz, Ulsom and early race leader Martin Buser all chose to rest at Old Woman Cabin, approximately two-thirds of the way to Unalakleet, for several hours. They are all trying to maintain their teams' speed, hoping that Burmeister and Mitch Seavey run out of gas farther up the coast. This is the plan that worked for Zirkle and Dallas Seavey in the 2012 Iditarod, helping both make up nearly a four-hours deficit over the final 300 miles.
Jeff King will be happy to get to Unalakleet, no matter how long it takes. On the same run last year, King's young and inexperienced dog team decided they had had enough and quit on four-time champion. King recognized that his team was unfit for travel and decided to scratch after spending a miserable night in the middle of a cold, arctic blizzard. King looks to have exorcised his 2012 demons on this section of trail and, more importantly, seems to think this year's group is ready to make a push to the front. He has confidence, patience and 13 strong pulling dogs. Don't count this wily 57-year-old out.
A lurking Redington
Ray Redington Jr. is also putting on an impressive push. The grandson of race founder Joe Redington Sr. has been one of the several teams lurking just off the lead pace during the middle third of the race, hovering between fifth and 15th place.
Redington is likely to put on a hard finish similar to last year when he moved up in standings over the final three days to finish sixth. I suspect he has his sights on an even-better result this year.
In the final push up the Seward Peninsula to Nome, there are usually only slight differences in team speed. As I've mentioned before, the only real way to gain much time is to cut rest at the checkpoints. In recent years, most mushers have employed a strategy of taking six to eight hours rest, split among the coastal checkpoints of Shaktoolik, Koyuk, and Elim. The six hours is usually split in half with one of the checkpoints (usually Elim) being completely eliminated as a stop.
Race to White Mountain
All of the mushers are required to take a mandatory eight-hour layover in White Mountain – a rule that turns the mushers' focus to getting to this second-to-last checkpoint as fast as possible. The 77-mile run from White Mountain to the finish line in Nome has turned into a relative formality in the past couple of years. Unless there is one of the fast-finishing Smyth brothers on your heels, any lead of at least 60 minutes is considered good enough to get you to the finish in the same place. That is why mushers are scrambling to get to White Mountain as fast as they can.
Expect the lead teams to spend a little more than four hours in Unalakleet before moving on to Shaktoolik, the next checkpoint on the Seward Peninsula. Zirkle has indicated that her mistake last year was too much rest in Unalakleet; she spent 5½ hours there while Dallas Seavey spent only 4½ -- and he ended up winning by an hour.
In the next 36 hours we'll know the answers to several lingering questions:
• Did Mitch Seavey and Burmeister's long run to Unalakleet burn up their dog-teams?
• Can Zirkle and Berkowitz perfect the balance of run and rest to stay with the lead teams?
• Will a musher like King, Ulsom or Redington come from behind to snatch victory at the last minute?
• Can defending champion Dallas Seavey work his team magic like last year and unleash a "coastal monster" dog team capable of reeling all the teams in?
Fortunately, the weather seems to be improving, with temperatures dropping to a more-reasonable running range in the teens and single digits. An east wind blew most of the night, giving the leaders a tailwind push as they glided down the Unalakleet River Valley. The forecast looks to be typical for the Bering Sea coast over the next few days – moderate winds from the north and west combined with slight chances for snow. But there will be no major storm to derail teams as they head up the coast.
The mushers' skill and the dogs' athleticism will determine the outcome of the 2013 Iditarod. And that's an ideal conclusion for such an exciting race.
Zack Steer, a five-time Iditarod finisher, is sitting out this year's race. He owns and operates the Sheep Mountain Lodge with Anjanette and two young boys. Follow Zacks race analysis at Alaska Dispatch.