There will be a party Tuesday night in Nome and everybody is invited. It will be a surprise party because we don't know who will be the first musher to drive down Front Street in this remote Alaska town and become the 2013 Iditarod champion. Mitch Seavey and Aliy Zirkle are poised for a final dual to the finish line, cumulating one of the most exciting Iditarod Sled Dog Races in recent history -- highlighted by numerous lead changes, divergent team strategies, challenging weather and trail conditions, and ample displays of musher grit and canine athleticism.
The White Mountain checkpoint is just 77 miles from the finish, the final stop all mushers make before finishing in Nome. A mandatory eight-hour layover at White Mountain -- to allow the dogs rest and allow the race veterinarians time to thoroughly examine all the animals, puts the race on pause.
Seavey pulled into the White Mountain at 5:11 a.m. Zirkle pulled in just 13 minutes later. It took Seavey 7 hours, 34 minutes to complete the 50-mile run between Elim and White Mountain -- 35 minutes longer than Zirkle. You can do the math and see that these two teams are set up for a final run today to determine the champion. Seavey has taken more rest along the coast, but Zirkle appears to be slightly faster. It's anybody's guess who can post the fastest time to Nome. Jeff King is third, an hour and 41 minutes back. Even Ray Redington Jr. and Dallas Seavey aren't completely out of it, no more than three hours behind
Same name, different Seavey
This year is something of a repeat of last year's Seavey-Zirkle dual to the finish. Except it is 2004 Iditarod champion Mitch Seavey racing Zirkle in the final stretch, not his son Dallas Seavey, who took the victory in 2012 and earned the title of youngest Iditarod champion ever. Expect the winner to cross under Nome's historic burled arch Tuesday evening.
Seavey has led the race most of the way since the leaders reached the coastal village of Unalakleet late Sunday morning. At that point, Zirkle was 2 1/2 hours behind -- and appeared to be fading. Turns out her fade was a fake and her dogs have rebounded nicely moving up the coast, passing Burmeister and a late-surging King on the long runs between Shaktoolik, Koyuk and Elim.
How quickly things change. Jeff King appears to have pushed his team too hard over the Kaltag Portage, digging too deep into his dogs' energy reserves, with too much trail left to cover. He made up a remarkable amount of time on the leaders over the middle third of the race, but appears to be fading on the homestretch. King camped twice on the run from Koyuk to Elim, perhaps to try and revitalize his team, perhaps to avoid a complete collapse like last year, when he was forced to scratch on the run to Unalakleet. King is sitting in third at White Mountain, about two hours behind Seavey and Zirkle. At this point, he's probably thinking more about protecting third place than posing a credible challenge for the victory.
Nipping at his heals
Within two hours of King are a pack of musher-wolves fighting each other for position in a tight knit group rounding out the current top-11 teams. Mushing for pride and position are Ray Redington Jr. of Wasilla, defending champion Dallas Seavey, Norwegian rookie Joar Ulsom, Jake Berkowitz of Big Lake, Nick Petit of Girdwood, Aaron Burmeister of Nome, Sonny Lindner of Fairbanks and DeeDee Jonrowe of Willow.
All of them still have a chance at a top-five finish, and the difference in prize money is considerable: This year, fourth place pays $41,100 while 11th place pays $24,500. Considering that it costs each musher at least $30,000 (often more) to run the Iditarod, a top-seven finish is needed to break even for an average kennel. You can bet these teams will be seeing dollar signs on the top of their competitors' heads as they try and pass each other on the homestretch.
Reliable lead dogs are never more important than over the race's final 300 miles. People often ask, "What makes a good lead dog," thinking perhaps it is the ability to follow commands or dominate the other dogs on the team. The reality is much simpler: A good lead dog gets in front and stays in front. That's it. This is much easier said than done. At this point in the race, mushers don't care if Rex knows "gee" or "haw." All they care is that Rex gets up, walks to the front of the team and says to the other dogs, "All right, it's time to get down the trail."
There is no more time for sneaky moves or cutting rest. Whoever has the best lead dog at this point in the race will most likely make the difference between Seavey and Zirkle.
Along the coast, most teams are travelling 5-6 miles per hour, about half the speed they were reaching during the first day of the race. The sleds are devoid of all but the most essential gear, and the mushers are practically pushing it themselves by kicking and ski-poling. All the dogs need to do is stay out front and trot down the trail. The lead dog doesn't really need to pull. It doesn't need to bark or make trail decisions. It just needs to set the example for all the other dogs to follow.
It is not uncommon for teams to fall off the pace at the end of the race because they "run out of leaders." Translated from musher-ese, this means that all the dogs in the team are healthy and will pull, but only if there is a dog out on front of them. Without at least one dog that will get out front and stay out front, the team is as good as stopped.
An Iditarod that started on record pace in the first half has been slowed by challenging trail conditions and dog teams that appear to be running at their "red line" -- tired and slowed by the grind of some 900 miles of travel across the frozen tundra.
So many leaders this year
Seavey and Zirkle have set themselves apart with a focused approach to their teams, executing a race plan that works best for their team -- while ignoring what the competition is doing. While other teams had bursts of trail speed, Seavey and Zirkle both maintained a measured pace the entire length of the race, never letting their dog teams get beyond the point of recovery. When challengers made pushes to the front, they let them go, knowing that eventually their team would catch up as the latest leader fizzled.
In the past, the Iditarod has seen one leader practically from start to finish, a combination of a dominating team and lackluster challengers. Not this year. Martin Buser, Aaron Burmeister, Jeff King, Lance Mackey, Jake Berkowitz and Paul Gebhardt have all spent time in the lead of this year's race. At some point, all looked like they could pull off a victory. But none had the perfect combination of speed and endurance to separate from the pack.
So far, Seavey Sr. and Zirkle have run an almost perfect race. Each needs just one more perfect run. Only one will get it.
Zack Steer, a five-time Iditarod finisher, is sitting out this year's race. He owns and operates the Sheep Mountain Lodge with Anjanette and two young boys. Follow Zack's race analysis at Alaska Dispatch.