JUNEAU -- The Alaska Senate approved the Knik Arm Crossing project Saturday after deciding that instead of the scientific traffic projections that they'd previously said were necessary, they'd instead base the billion-dollar decision on an anecdote.
Traffic projections for the bridge over Knik Arm are unusually important for an Alaska transportation project, because the project would be largely financed through tolls.
That heavy reliance on toll-revenue funding makes the bridge project unusual, if not unique, among Alaska projects. Those tolls were supposed to attract a private developer that could see the bridge built at no cost to the state, but such a developer never materialized.
Another unusual aspect to the project was that it was not to have been managed through the state Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, but through the specially created Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority.
Last year a state legislative audit revealed why KABATA may not have been able to find the private developer needed under the "public-private" project concept: Its toll and revenue projections were "unreasonably optimistic." Consequently, state leaders' confidence in KABATA and its public-private partnership model waned.
After a decade of work and $70 million in spending, the project appeared to be more in doubt than ever.
But Gov. Sean Parnell proposed that the state take over full responsibility for the project, relying on state funds, federal loans and grants, and toll revenues to finance the bridge.
KABATA promised to redo its traffic projections and have a new, more reliable number, first promising that number by last September, then last March, and now July.
But DOT officials say that study's not really needed, and they provided an anecdote instead. Their estimates are that 10,000 vehicles a day will be needed for the bridge to pay for itself, and the bridge between downtown Juneau and the Douglas Island neighborhood shows that's possible.
Traffic counts on that bridge amount to 9,500 vehicles per day.
KABATA executive director Judy Dougherty told legislators they expected initial traffic counts of 6,000 per day, eventually reaching 21,000 per day for the Knik Arm Bridge.
The elimination of the "private" aspect to the project significantly reduces costs, and makes it much easier for bridge tolls to cover those costs, said DOT's Jeff Ottesen.
"This is a very different model, this is a much leaner model," he said.
Under the new plan, a federal transportation loan program called TIFIA would loan the state $350 million, to be paid back from toll revenues. Alaska would then bond on its own for another $300 million, with debt service on that also expected to be paid from toll revenues. The state will also use about $300 million of its federal highway aid for the project, though about $5 million in state money is in this year's budget as well.
Total construction costs are projected at just under $1 billion, supporters said.
While previously the private developer was to have been solely responsible for paying off those bonds, now the state is, but the total cost is lower, Ottesen said.
"The state's taking some more risk here, but with that risk they're also getting a better deal," he said.
But the lack of any traffic estimates that weren't simply pulled out of the air troubled some senators Saturday.
"We are still lacking very basic data," said Sen. Berta Gardner, D-Anchorage.
But Sen. Lesil McGuire, R-Anchorage, said the Juneau bridge showed that such traffic counts are possible, even in a much smaller community.
"Here we are in this small population of Juneau-Douglas and we're making 9,500," she said.
Sen. Hollis French, D-Anchorage, said the Legislature should have the six-months-overdue report before going ahead with a billion-dollar project, and questioned why they didn't have it.
"I hope this is not indicative of how this project is being run," he said.
McGuire said she didn't dispute that the lack of the study was disappointing, but that it had taken three months to get the Municipality of Anchorage to share its data with KABATA, and there were other delays.
"I don't read anything insidious into this," she said.
Sen. Mike Dunleavy, R-Wasilla, said he was originally a skeptic, but that the Juneau-Douglas traffic counts show that it can be done, and that eventually the Knik Arm Crossing will actually return money to the state.
"This may be the only project that in the end will pay for itself," he said.
But KABATA skeptic Sen. Donny Olson, R-Golovin, said the only way that the free Douglas bridge could be used as a comparison is if a second bridge was built with a toll to see if people would use that.
Douglas is more than 100 years old, and was an independent city before merging with Juneau in 1970 with the creation of a borough, and is home to state Fish and Game and Corrections offices.
Many residents whom Alaska will need to cross the Knik Arm Bridge, likely at $5 each way, will be able to drive the Glenn Highway for free, Olson said. The state is already incurring too many debts, he said, given its deteriorating financial situation.
"What I see is not storm clouds gathering on the financial horizon, the storm is already here," he said.
Dunleavy said people on the East Coast are accustomed to paying tolls, and they don't object when a toll road or bridge offers a better alternative.
"Tossing money in the basket to gain access to well-maintained roads and bridges is worth the money saved on gas," he said.
KABATA's Dougherty said Knik Arm tolls are expected to be collected electronically.
And Rep. Anna Fairclough, R-Eagle River, said that traffic congestion on the Glenn was already hurting Alaskans. "Families and businesses are suffering," she said.
Though the data is not all available yet, it will have to be checked before the federal government will provide the TIFIA loans, she said.
"It's a sound financial package that's being presented," she said.
Senate President Charlie Huggins, R-Wasilla, is a strong KABATA supporter, but he did not participate in the debate while presiding.
"This legacy project with change the entire make-up of Southcentral Alaska," he said in a statement provided later. "This project exemplified the kind of strategic infrastructure we need to bring economic growth and stability for our families and the entire state of Alaska for generations to come."
The Knik Arm Crossing bill, House Bill 23, passes 16-4, and now returns to the House for concurrence with changes made in the Senate.
Correction: The original version of this story misspelled the name of KABATA Executive Director as Judy Dougherty. We regret the error.
Contact Pat Forgey at pat(at)alaskadispatch.com