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Jenkins: Race for Senate has run out of ideas and turned to women, undecideds

Watching the grinding, soul-shredding contest for the U.S. Senate seat handed Democrat Mark Begich by our friends in the Justice Department, it is easy to see where each side in the fracas -- desperate for new ideas, any ideas, at this late date -- hopes to find a campaign boost.

Begich and Republican Dan Sullivan are turning the run-up to November's battle for control of the Senate into a "War of Women." Suddenly, there is one woman after another on television touting the candidates, defending their honor, making their points, countering attacks.

There's Begich's mom telling us how frugal he is, apparently overlooking his spendthrift ways as Anchorage's mayor. There is his wife telling us he is cheap because he liked $10 shirts, apparently forgetting municipal budgets jumped by $30 million or so every year he was mayor; that fees and fines blew through the roof; that he gutted with great abandon city accounts set aside for other purposes to spend, spend, spend.

Then, we have a happy teacher telling us Dan Sullivan saved her retirement and handily defeated Wall Street. An abortion lady warns that the evil Sullivan cannot be trusted; that he will make you have a baby whether you really want one or not. There is Sullivan's wife looking into the camera and fiercely slapping down Begich for his attacks on Sullivan's residency and military service.

We are treated to Bella Hammond, a treasured Alaska icon, comparing Begich to her late husband, Gov. Jay Hammond -- the idea being that Begich really, truly, honestly is a political moderate who can work with anybody, just like Sen. Lisa Murkowski, the woman he desperately is trying to be. (You have to wonder why it took him so long to drag Hammond into the fray -- and who is next?) Murkowski, trying to kick Begich to curb for months, says Sullivan is her choice. A businesswoman says Begich is hers. And so it goes.

Each of the campaigns apparently has determined there are vulnerable, available votes among women and Alaskans who can be influenced by their views -- and they really, really want them, but can they make a difference?

Let's face it, after months of being hammered into goo by attack ads and negative campaigning, most of us have made up our minds about who will get our vote in November.

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Surely, we all have heard Begich is really Harry Reid and responsible for Obamacare and Sullivan is an Outsider. The rhetoric has degenerated; campaigns are starting to repackage old, shop-worn lies into new ads. They simply have run out of ideas. You would have to be near comatose still to be wondering, "Gee, who am I going to vote for?"

The fight now is over a handful of votes, that tiny "still-undecided" percentage, those whose minds can be changed or slugabeds iffy about getting off the couch to vote. Those account for -- and this is a guess -- 4 percent to 6 percent of the 300,000-plus Alaskans likely to vote.

That tiny percentage easily could swing this election -- and is especially important to Democrats, who will show up on Election Day with a sizable disadvantage in registration numbers.

In the August primary, there were 134,000 Republicans registered, compared to 69,500 Democrats. The Republicans, by the way, tend, as a group, to vote. Democrats? Not as much. In the primary, the Alaska Division of Elections reports show only 27,000 of nearly 70,000 registered Democrats voted. Republicans? About 60,000 of 134,000.

Also in the August primary, there were about 270,000 undeclared and nonpartisan voter registrations. That is more than half the state's 499,000 total registrations. Most votes still up for grabs will be netted from that pool.

Some observers note "nonpartisan" voters -- there were nearly 85,000 of them registered in the primary -- tend to participate more in elections and often are left-of-center voters. They include government workers, bashful Democrats and such. "Undeclared" voters -- 184,000 were registered in the primary -- comprise the largest single pool of voters and are the most likely to change their minds. They offer the best targets for electioneering, and research shows many of them are right-of-center voters, but vote at a lower rate.

Each candidate clearly is trying to find a way to entice voters in those pools and believe women and women's voices are key.

The big question: Will it be enough?

Paul Jenkins is editor of the AnchorageDailyPlanet.com, a division of Porcaro Communications.

The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com.

Paul Jenkins

Paul Jenkins is a former Associated Press reporter, managing editor of the Anchorage Times, an editor of the Voice of the Times and former editor of the Anchorage Daily Planet.

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