JUNEAU -- Alaska is either a national leader or laggard on job creation, based on newly released state and national employment data.
Alaska lost 7,600 jobs between August and September, according to September's newly released preliminary Alaska jobs numbers. A comparison of September 2014 to September 2013 shows a loss of 1,200 jobs.
But the office of Gov. Sean Parnell responded to the new numbers by issuing a press release Tuesday claiming "Alaska Created More Jobs Per Capita Than Any Other State in September."
So why the disconnect? It all depends on how and which numbers are examined.
As proof of Parnell's claim, press secretary Sharon Leighow pointed to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and a press release that does list Alaska as among the nation's leaders in jobs creation for September 2014. But it does so in only a single measure, seasonally-adjusted jobs, and only for the single month.
For September, the bureau shows Alaska gained a seasonally-adjusted number of 2,900 jobs.
Seasonal adjustment is a statistical method that smooths out the variation of the state's job peaks, making the underlying market trends easier to see, according to the state Department of Labor and Workforce's research and analysis section.
"Alaska's employers have more work in the summer, so seasonally adjusted monthly employment adjusts the number of jobs up in the winter and adjusts them down in the summer," according to an article by state labor economist Mali Abrahamson in the November 2012 Alaska Economic Trends report.
The bureau's national press release confirms Parnell's claims about Alaska's September growth rate, but only if seasonal, rather than actual, job estimates are used. It also contains some troubling information about the Alaska economy.
Alaska did lead the nation in what it calls "non-farm payroll employment," the bureau said, but only if the District of Columbia, with twice as many jobs as Alaska, is excluded.
"The largest over-the-month percentage increase in employment occurred in the District of Columbia (+1.1 percent), followed by Alaska (+0.9 percent)" the bureau's release said.
The troubling news is what the bureau says about jobs in Alaska if the full year is examined instead. "Over the year, nonfarm employment increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in Alaska (-0.2 percent)."
That means that the state that had the biggest per capita job gain for the month, excluding D.C., also had the worst in the nation for the year, whether D.C. is included or not. Alaska had the only annual decrease in the nation.
The actual numbers for Alaska were not in the bureau's release, but state data shows a loss of 1,200 jobs in Alaska over the full year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
But Parnell focused on the September number in a comment included in the press release from Leighow.
"Alaska added more jobs per capita in September than any other state," Parnell said. "I hear it from people across the state that our policies are working."
Leighow's press release also included a claim from Parnell that Alaska has added 16,000 jobs during his tenure, a claim that has figured prominently in Parnell's gubernatorial campaign and that he also linked that to the success of his policies.
The data she provided to support the claim of 16,000 jobs gained is federal data only available through March. State data since then show job losses in the hundreds or thousands compared to last year, depending on the estimating method.
Job numbers, as well as their accuracy and relevance, have been a recent point of contention between Parnell and opponent Bill Walker in debates and press releases. Walker has claimed that job growth under Parnell has lagged other full-term governors.
In a press release Tuesday, Parnell campaign manager Tom Wright said that comparing Parnell's track record to other governors "showed no value."
Leighow did not say why the governor's publicly funded communications office was weighing into the campaign battle over jobs with Tuesday's unusual press release on monthly job numbers.
Alaska Dispatch Publishing