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Paul Jenkins: Reading the tea leaves for Alaska's 2016 Senate race

With dust from recent elections still clouding the air, many political junkies itching for fireworks -- and unwilling to quietly eat their popcorn and await the train wreck that is our new state government -- already are focusing on the 2016 Senate race. It has possibilities.

The big question seems moot: Sen. Lisa Murkowski almost certainly will seek re-election, barring her being squished by a meteor. Already she is rejiggering staff.

With a dozen years seniority and a new job as Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee boss, she is coming into her own. It takes forever for a senator to gain enough seniority and clout to do Alaska any good -- and she is about there. Think Ted Stevens.

Ah, you might say, but she is toting as much baggage as the Orient Express. Many on the far right remain livid about her 2010 shellacking of Joe Miller, who trounced her in the Republican primary while she, apparently, was asleep at the switch.

Murkowski recovered and mounted a historic general election write-in campaign. Democrats helped by fielding a weak Senate candidate, Scott McAdams of Sitka. You ask: Who? So did everybody else. Murkowski drew wide support from moderate Republicans, political middle-of-the-roaders, independents and Democrats terrified of Miller and certain McAdams was roadkill. Oh, and an independent expenditure group spent on Murkowski's behalf a whale-choking wad of cash from Native interests.

A stronger, more viable Democratic candidate -- anybody, maybe a Fran Ulmer or Tony Knowles -- would have offered the left somebody other than Murkowski to vote for as an alternative to Miller and sinking Murkowski's write-in, but c'est la vie.

Two years from now, the political landscape will be far different. Megamillions poured into Alaska's midterm Senate race because it was about much more than Mark Begich or Dan Sullivan. The election was for all the marbles, control of the Senate and the nation's destiny, for at least the next few years. It was about policy and judgeships and power. In 2016? Not so much. There will be 34 Senate seats up for grabs -- 10 Democrats; 24 Republicans. Murkowski is strong enough that Democrats and the GOP will be spending their money elsewhere, but special interests enamored of her Senate leadership role will not forget her.

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Murkowski, though, would be a formidable in any circumstance. She has evolved, pollsters say, into Alaska's most popular politician -- with an approval rating topping 60 percent -- appealing to the political middle, where most Alaska voters live. There are residual bad feelings from 2010 among die-hard Miller supporters who still see her as a traitor to the Republican cause, a rule-breaking spoiler. They can barely keep from spitting as they hiss her name.

Who would run against her in a GOP primary? Hard to tell. Miller? He has rehabilitated himself into something not so scary. During the GOP Senate primary race, he proved himself an articulate, able debater. He bested opponents Sullivan and Mead Treadwell more than once -- and nailed down 32 percent of the primary vote, trailing Sullivan's 40 percent.

Why Miller again would want to take on Murkowski, when an aging, stumbling Don Young is ripe for the picking is beyond me. There is a good chance Miller could knock off Young in the primary -- surely Mr. Yapstoomuch will have threatened a Girl Scout or insulted the pope by then -- and take on whoever the Democrats throw at him. Maybe Begich, who should be just about finished telling us how much he did for us. With overwhelming Republican voter registration numbers being what they are, Miller should do well -- and being a congressman is not a bad thing.

If Miller takes on Murkowski, he likely would have a decent chance, too. There are enough on the far right still bitter from 2010 to embarrass Murkowski, but the test would come later. If Miller won the GOP nod, Democrats would find somebody strong enough -- Begich? -- to challenge him while propping up a third-party conservative to bleed off votes. Miller would be toast.

If Murkowski were to win the primary, Miller could run in the general as a third-party alternative. If Democrats ante up somebody reasonably palatable -- again, Begich? -- Miller and Murkowski both could be toast.

Of course, all this is speculation. There could be a candidate out there nobody has heard of yet who will sweep Alaska off its feet.

In the meantime ... Hey, is that a train whistle?

Paul Jenkins is editor of the AnchorageDailyPlanet.com, a division of Porcaro Communications.

The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com.

Paul Jenkins

Paul Jenkins is a former Associated Press reporter, managing editor of the Anchorage Times, an editor of the Voice of the Times and former editor of the Anchorage Daily Planet.

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