I went out of the dog yard today, whispering "whoa" to a crazy 12-dog team. Whispering, because if one hollers, the dogs know they have you and go faster. I finally got them stopped and the sled upright after a short mile. Now, back in some semblance of control, I reflected how nice it was not to be running the Yukon Quest this coming weekend with the 26 poor suckers who are.
The Quest starts in Whitehorse on Feb. 7. To this musher, who will be watching from the warmth of the cabin, it looks to the best field in years. Second guessing the teams from the living room can be fun. I should have some level of expertise, having seen most of the competitive teams run this winter. Nonetheless, the reality is that your guess is as good as mine.
But I'll discuss what I think I know, so the rest of the armchair dudes can pick it apart.
There are eight obvious teams that could legitimately fit into the top five.
Moore? Redington? King?
One certainly can't bet against two-time defending champion Allen Moore. Allen won the Copper Basin, albeit by a couple of minutes. SP Kennels of Moore and wife Aily Zirkle had three teams in the top six at Copper Basin. It is hard to argue against that kennel and their very experienced driver.
Ray Redington, though technically a Yukon Quest rookie, is far from that. He picked up a lot of time on Allen in the last few miles of the Copper. The second Redington team also was in the mix. Ray plans well and thinks ahead.
Jeff King is back in the Quest after single-mindedly pursing the Iditarod for a couple of decades. Jeff may have fun running, but he is not running for fun. He is training a lot of dogs hard and surely is not racing for second place.
Hugh Neff will be at the starting line again. Hugh always has decent speed and has learned to be patient. I don't think his is a winning outfit, but I am not foolhardy enough to count him out either.
Norwegian musher Joar Ulsom is also taking a look at the Quest too. Joars' team is a little older, but this was a fourth-place Iditarod team run by a very savvy guy. Joar could be in the top five.
Brent Sass may well have the best-conditioned team on this year's Yukon Quest after training on snow up in Manley that fell early this winter. He has a good number of dogs to work with and should do well if he can dig down and figure out what patience means. Maybe 2014 was educational and 2015 is his year. He ran a very smart race at this years' Gin Gin 200.
Mackey back in Quest
Young Matt Hall is coming off a third-place run in the 2014 Quest. He has been running dogs since he was old enough to crawl and has a good crew. He may not be able to overcome a lack of funding and dog numbers, but I believe he has the dog expertise and a couple of very well trained leaders. Adverse conditions will favor 24-year-old Matt.
Lance Mackey is back in the Quest after a short break from the 1,000-mile race from Whitehorse to his hometown of Fairbanks. His is a team I haven't seen, though I hear things and have seen a team or two from his dog yard. Mackey has had some not-so-good runs the past couple seasons, but his history will tell you that he is very capable. I think that getting a winning team to Nome a few years ago with 15 of his original 16 dogs still in harness was amazing.
Scott Smith is back too. Scott has considerable dog experience. He is not afraid to make unconventional runs to shake up the pack. On his last Yukon Quest he pulled off some very long runs that were quite successful.
There are few other pretty fair teams in the mix that may not squeeze into the top five, but given the right mix of weather and conditions, they will be close.
Ryne Olson, who finished third in the Copper Basin 300, is running a very good team. She has good discipline and experience. Cody Strathe is running big dogs that can move well. A little more experience peppered with stubbornness could get him to sixth in this field.
Drum roll, please
That's my take on the 2015 Yukon Quest. My pardons if I neglect to mention your team, but if they do well you can poke fun at me. Here's my Top 5:
1) Allen Moore
2) Jeff King
3) Ray Redington
4) Brent Sass
5) Hugh Neff
Joar Ulsom, Matt Hall, Scott Smith or Ryne Olson are "pick 'em" for sixth.
John Schandelmeier is a lifelong Alaskan who lives with his family near Paxson. He is a Bristol Bay commercial fisherman and two-time winner of the Yukon Quest International Sled Dog Race.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story said Ryne Olson is running a dog team from SP Kennels, owned by Allen Moore and Aliy Zirkle. Olson has her own kennel this year.