Hey, let's do math! Well, math of sorts – hockey math, courtesy this dope operating the keyboard, a liberal arts major who can barely operate a calculator.
In any event, with the ECHL regular season winding down and the Alaska Aces still hunting a Pacific Division playoff berth – they'll have to take it from the Utah Grizzlies – let's break down the situation.
Utah's 5-3 loss to Idaho tonight leaves the Grizzlies with 72 points in 65 games. The Aces, after their 8-4 victory at Bakersfield on Tuesday, own 69 points in 63 games. So, the Aces trail the Grizzlies by three points and have two games in hand – Alaska has nine games left and Utah seven game remaining, and two of those are Alaska at Utah games on April 3-4.
Utah currently sits fourth, which is the last playoff spot in the division. Alaska sits fifth.
Utah's remaining games break down to four at home, three on the road – in order, two at home vs. division-leading Idaho, 2 at home vs. the Aces, one on the road at Idaho.
Alaska's remaining games break down to six on the road, three at home – in order, three at Stockton, one at Idaho, two at Utah and three at home against Ontario.
Needless to say, Alaska needs max points out of the three games at last-place Stockton on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It likely must get a minimum of four. Five or six would be especially handy.
On the duh front – those Aces-Grizzlies games in Utah will be huge, especially if either team can snag three points or more.
Here's a thought: No matter where the Aces end up, they at some point will look back to a three-game home series against Utah in February, when the Grizzlies left town with five of six available points.
At some point, the Aces will either thank their stars they survived that stumble, or they will look back on it and figure that was a weekend that killed them.
Not that those were the only games the Aces will rue if they fail to qualify for the postseason for the first time in their 12 ECHL seasons, which would also make them the first defending Kelly Cup champion to fail to make the playoffs the following season.
A 4-3 shootout loss to Colorado on March 11 was painful for the Aces – they led 3-1 with less than three minutes left in regulation.
A 5-4 shootout loss at Bakersfield on March 2 hurt – the Aces led 3-1 with nine minutes to go in regulation.
On the other hand, the Aces were three games below .500 when they woke up on Jan. 24 – they were 10 points behind Utah at that point, sitting sixth behind Bako -- and have since gone 16-7-4 in a 27-game span to move six games above .500 (31-25-7) and gives themselves legitimate playoff hopes.