Turnout, if not truckloads of cash, will decide this week's Anchorage mayoral contest. Ethan Berkowitz, former Democratic legislator, has the lion's share. His opponent, Amy Demboski, a conservative, has an electorate that largely mirrors her views in many areas.
As important is the question of who supporters of Dan Coffey and Andrew Halcro in the April 7 general election will vote for in Tuesday's runoff. While both claimed to be Republicans -- Coffey for a few weeks, anyway -- neither has been of much help to Demboski. In fact, Coffey has been downright spiteful. Demboski teed off on him in the general election and it is time for payback.
"She's too far right, you know?" Coffey told the Alaska Dispatch News. He said he's told his supporters: "I am not endorsing Amy. And I am not endorsing Ethan. But frankly, Amy reminds me of Sarah Palin -- a person who claims to know virtually everything about everything, and really knows very little about anything at all."
All of that, of course, helps Berkowitz, who has more money for this campaign than Scrooge McDuck. His seven-day Alaska Public Offices Commission campaign report shows he took in $221,000 between March 29 and April 25, and had $101,000 left to spend. Demboski? Not so much. She reported $98,000 during the same period -- with only $28,000 left to get her name and views before the public.
Berkowitz said he spent $195,000 between March 29 and April 25, much of it on television and radio ads -- more than double the $90,000 Demboski spent. He also has an independent, largely union-fueled effort working in his corner.
One of them, Berkowitz for a Better Anchorage, gathered more than $95,000 -- $70,000 of which came from unions that represent the city's police and firefighters.
Another independent group funded by a hotel and hospitality workers union reported spending $30,000 on Berkowitz's behalf. Alaska Conservation Voters reported a $15,000 contribution from the Washington, D.C.-based League of Conservation Voters.
Demboski is not getting such expenditures.
If you are wondering what the left wants from this election -- why it is so willing to ante up so much in a mayoral race -- the answers are simple. Money. Money. And, of course, money.
The last time a Democrat held the reins at City Hall, the city belly-flopped into a very big tank of red ink and sank under the weight of increased spending and fat five-year union contracts. (It was an example of why Franklin D. Roosevelt thought public employee unions were a very bad idea.) It took years to recover. If you look really hard at Berkowitz and squint with one eye, you can see the very Democrat responsible for that mess, Mark Begich, a guy -- with his Assembly pals -- who added about $30 million each year to city spending, even raiding little pots of money here and there set aside for other purposes.
It is hard to predict the future, but there are any number of givens with a guy who wants pre-kindergarten for any family that wants it and more after-school programs, a guy who wants something for everyone.
If Berkowitz is mayor, with our too-often liberal Assembly, there will be no budget surpluses, as we have had for the past few years because of tight fiscal management and the city will "tax to the cap" every year.
Property taxes, especially as the state faces its own money problems -- and nearly a $4 billion deficit is, indeed, a problem -- will go up to pay for increased spending, on parks, on niceties, on wants rather than needs, on things we could live without for a while.
Liberal social issues will be front and center -- and rammed down our throats. (Berkowitz accuses Demboski of ignoring the public's will on marijuana, but he is quick to ignore the public's will on Proposition 5, which unnecessarily would have extended gay rights in Anchorage, and failed.)
There will be more city employees. It should be noted Berkowitz and Demboski each would increase the number of cops, not a bad thing.
Berkowitz is a touchy-feely guy, a liberal Democrat with a liberal Democrat's appetite for more government, more spending, and more more. Worse, he is a government guy, a professional politician, a guy I like, except as mayor.
He represents the same tired, old "we know best" liberal politics we have seen before -- and took years to pay off.
Paul Jenkins is editor of the AnchorageDailyPlanet.com, a division of Porcaro Communications, which has provided services to the Demboski campaign.
The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com