Fisheries biologists are "cautiously optimistic" about strong early king salmon returns across Southcentral this spring, but say it's too soon to tell if encouraging early-season numbers indicate a rebound or simply that fish are arriving sooner than usual.
"The counts have been fairly strong, but it could be an early run, it could be a compressed run or it could be a strong run," said Carol Kerkvliet, a biologist with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game in Homer.
Kerkvliet has been monitoring king salmon passage at the department's weir on the Anchor River, a small, clear stream north of Homer. As of June 2, the department had counted 1,826 kings in the river. That compares to 512 at the same time last year, 75 in 2013 and 672 in 2012. The department manages the river for a sustainable escapement goal of 3,800 to 10,000 kings during the entire summer, a number biologists fell short of last year.
Other river systems are seeing similar numbers. On the Kenai River, where king salmon fishing is closed by emergency order through the end of June due to a poor preseason forecast, 960 kings had been counted by sonar through June 1. Although fewer than 1,000 fish might not seem like a big deal, it's a significant leap over the 204 kings counted by this time last year and the 220 counted in 2013. The early run, which ends June 30, is managed for an optimum escapement goal of 5,300 to 9,000 kings.
Area management biologist Robert Begich said biologists should know more about the run's strength in about a week.
"When we get through this weekend is the 25th percentile or quarter point of the run," he said.
By June 14, Begich said about half the run should have arrived. If the counts remain strong through then, he said that will be an indication the run is for real.
"We're moving into the time where we get a better idea of total run strength and abundance," he said.
The good returns are mirrored on the Deshka River in the Mat-Su, where 661 kings were counted June 2 to push the season total to 1,194 -- nearly three times as many as this time a year ago.
Since 2009, king stocks in Southcentral have been below average, and the department expected another poor run this summer. In its preseason forecast, Fish and Game estimated a total return of 5,265 kings to the Kenai or about half the average return seen over the past three decades and about the same as last year.
But the department's forecasts are far from exact. In 2013, ADFG biologists forecast a run of 5,330 Kenai kings but only 2,150 showed up. Last year's estimate was for 2,230 kings and 5,400 made it up-river to spawn.
While all that boils down to a lot of uncertainty, Begich said the good early indicators are encouraging.
"Compared to where we've been in recent years, absolutely," he said.
Best bets:
Take a kid fishing
On Saturday, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game will open a portion of the Nick Dudiak Fishing Lagoon on the Homer Spit to anglers age 15 and younger. The youth-only fishery are will be clearly posted, according to a press release issued Wednesday.
In addition to closing part of the popular fishing hole to adults, Fish and Game will host a variety of activities designed to get kids hooked on king salmon fishing. From 3-6 p.m., department staff will be on hand to help young anglers learn how to fish and answer questions. There will be fishing rods and tackle available for anglers to borrow. Fishing rods can also be checked out at the Alaska Islands and Ocean Visitor Center or at the Homer Fish and Game office.
Fish and Game program technician Carolyn Bunker said fishing should be good at the lagoon, which began seeing catchable returns a couple weeks ago.
"Ever since the kings have been coming in the middle of May, it's been getting better," she said.
Last-chance weekend
This is the final chance for king salmon anglers to take advantage of weekend openers on the Ninilchik River, Deep Creek and Anchor River, which are open from Saturday at 12:01 a.m. through Monday.Success at the Kenai Peninsula streams has been mixed, according to area management biologist Carol Kerkvliet.
"There were some fish taken out of the rivers for sure," she said of last weekend's openers.
The weekend openers are the last of the season for the three Kenai Peninsula streams.
Kerkvliet said sunny, high temperatures made fishing difficult, but that anglers who ventured out in the early morning had better luck. Cloudy, rainy weather is forecast for this weekend.
Kerkvliet said it's important for anglers to keep in mind that steelhead trout are migrating out of the rivers and cannot be retained or even removed from the water before being released. Steelhead have a white mouth (kings' are black), a squarish tail and frequently -- but not always -- have rainbow coloration on their sides.
It's important that anglers can differentiate between the two species before heading out on the water, she said.
"You just really need to be able to tell the difference," she said.
Alaska anglers' Superbowl?
Thursday is arguably the biggest day of the year for Southcentral anglers. One of the state's most popular fisheries, Russian River red salmon, opens. On the same day, the Kenai River reopens to rainbow trout anglers.
The increasingly popular trout fishery has been shuttered since May 1 so the rainbows have nearly six weeks undisturbed to spawn. About 43,000 rainbow trout are caught by anglers each year, according to Fish and Game, with 95 percent released. Trophy rainbows of 30 inches or more are occasionally landed. Smolt fly patterns often work this time of year.
Last year, the Russian River's early run of red salmon saw nearly 46,000 sockeyes swim past the weir at Lower Russian Lake, the best return since 2009. Biologists are projecting another strong run this year. Expect crowds: This is Alaska combat fishing at its finest.
Do a little dippin
Sockeye returns have been stronger than expected on the Copper River, where managers counted 206,561 salmon past the Miles Lake sonar station between May 25-31. That's almost double what was projected in the preseason, which prompted Fish and Game to open the personal use fishery in the Chitina subdistrict 24 hours per day June 8-14.
The department manages the dipnet fishery on a week-to-week basis based on the number of fish counted past the sonar site. Although the current open period runs through June 14, future openings are likely if the run remains strong.
The fishery is open only to Alaska residents with a valid sportfishing license as well as a Chitina Personal Use fishery permit.
Contact reporter Matt Tunseth at 257-43354 or mtunseth@alaskadispatch.com
* This story has been corrected from its original version, which incorrectly stated the open dates for the Anchor River.