For the first time in four years, anglers pursuing the mythic Kenai River king salmon will be able to use more-effective bait, another indication the long-hobbled fishery may be rebounding.
"We've seen a rebound of king salmon in Cook Inlet," said Jason Pawluk, the Soldotna-based assistant area management biologist for the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. "We estimate 1,700 fish have been harvested in the river since July 1. It's certainly better than it's been the last few years."
Pawluk and his fellow state biologists project that up to 25,600 king salmon will escape upriver to spawn -- even taking into account a greater harvest due to the use of bait over the last week of the season. Anglers could land as many as 3,500 additional kings, Fish and Game estimates.
"Bait is more effective," Pawluk said, "and in our projections we accounted for that. There will also be increase in effort. We'll have people entering the fishery that haven't been in it yet."
Next week, he expects a 50 percent increase in anglers fishing with guides and a threefold increase in unguided anglers.
A ramp-up has begun already. Tuesday "was the biggest day of the year so far," Pawluk said. Fish and Game's creel survey, in which the department gauges effort in the sport fishery, showed that 160 boats were on the Kenai River.
But not all guides fishing the Kenai agree with the move to allow bait.
"We don't really need bait, because the fishing's been that good," said Jimmie Jack, 46, of the guide service Jimmie Jack Fishing. "My guides agree, we don't really need bait.
"There's a lot of fish in here, and we want to conserve the resource," said Jack, who said he's fished the Kenai since 1995. "We may ending up killing one more fish per boat with bait, but we don't want to kill the resource."
The Kenai isn't the only Southcentral river experiencing a king revival this summer.
• Deshka River: The popular Mat-Su waterway has counted about 24,000 kings, the most since 2006.
• Anchor River: The pretty river at the southern end of the Kenai Peninsula has counted nearly 9,800 kings, the most since 2005 and a huge rebound from the dismal return of 2,500 just last year.
• Little Su: With nearly 4,800 kings past the weir, this year is better than the previous two. A weir was not used in prior years.
And if the Kenai reaches its projections, it too, will exceed the last two years by a wide margin.
Exactly why is unclear. Most kings returning to spawn are 5-year-olds that have spent three years in the ocean. Pawluk said that the 2010 king return may have been especially healthy.
"Fish off that brood year may have done better in the marine environment," he said. "But there are so many variables that affect salmon."
Does a rebound in 2015 signal the start of a strong stretch of king returns?
"It's too early to say that," Pawluk said. "How this translates is hard to tell. We've talked to anglers, and I think there's still concern out there, given the history we've had in the past three to four years on our king runs."
Mirroring those anglers, state biologists caution that even though the king run looks far better than those of recent years, "run projections remain below the historical average total run size."
The Kenai's bait restriction will be eased Saturday morning and last until the fishery closes Friday July 31.
"It's been quiet on the river for a few years -- even this year," Jack said. "The pressure is definitely a lot less."
Dipnetting kings
On the same day a strong Kenai River king salmon return prompted to Alaska Department of Fish and Game to allow river anglers to use bait, a ban that prohibited personal-use dipnetters from keeping kings was loosened.
Beginning Saturday, one king may be kept for each household personal-use permit.
Under the Kenai River Late-Run King Salmon Management Plan, kings caught while dipnetting cannot be retained if bait is off limits to sport anglers fishing in the river. With bait restored, the annual limit of one king per dipnetting permit was restored too.
Both fisheries run through the end of the month.
Anglers can also begin using bait and multiple hooks on the Kasilof River from its mouth upstream to the Sterling Highway bridge beginning Saturday morning.
Contact Mike Campbell at mcampbell@alaskadispatch.com