Opinions

Alaska can adapt, perhaps flourish with climate change -- if we act

For most people in the Lower 48, knowledge of Alaska's changing climate is limited to images of diminished sea ice or melting glaciers. However, northern changes are much more complex. For example, as permafrost warms and thaws, it no longer holds moisture near the surface. The ground dries, new kinds of vegetation grow and geese, ducks and other creatures lose their habitat. Within decades, the landscape can be completely transformed. Change that happens with this speed is just not happening elsewhere.

During President Barack Obama's upcoming three-day visit to Alaska, we Alaskans have a rare opportunity to make the world aware of what's going on here. In Anchorage, the president will speak Monday evening at a conference on Arctic changes sponsored by the U.S. Department of State. Secretary of State John Kerry will also attend. Foreign ministers and leaders from other Arctic countries are expected at the Conference on Global Leadership in the Arctic: Cooperation, Innovation, Engagement and Resilience.

Northern experts will use this chance to highlight the following:

Continued warming will accelerate the thawing of permafrost and melting of glaciers, increase wildfires, spur changes in ecosystems, and stress marine and terrestrial wildlife. Our marine fisheries are threatened by ocean acidification, and our forests are impacted by drought. Alaskans have enjoyed milder winters, but warmer temperatures have allowed many insect pests to escape the deep cold and re-emerge in the spring, infesting every tree species in Alaska.

Not everyone agrees on the causes of climate change or the magnitude of its future impacts. As with all changes, there are winners and losers. Predicting the changes and their impacts as accurately as possible will give us the best opportunity to make wise decisions.

Scientists and engineers working for the University of Alaska, state and federal agencies, and private industry have developed a wide range of solutions for some of the problems that climate change is causing. There are engineering solutions to keep permafrost frozen and stable beneath roads and buildings. In 2009, the Government Accounting Office identified 31 villages under imminent threat of coastal or shoreline erosion, with 12 of these deciding to relocate. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, state of Alaska and communities have worked to stave off the erosion in many villages.

Scientists are developing crops that can be economically produced in new growing conditions. Climate modelers and community planners are working together to predict the consequences of projected changes and enable wiser development. Social scientists are helping our citizens understand and adapt to the changes in our natural, cultural, and business environments.

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We know our capacity to predict change and its impacts is imperfect and mostly limited to the near future. There are many emerging problems, such as destructive wildfires in populated areas, uncontrolled coastal erosion, and threats to subsistence and commercial fisheries.

In some cases we know what is needed to adapt, but Alaska lacks the resources. Average cargo and tanker traffic through Bering Strait has more than doubled in the last five years. We need increased marine infrastructure to support Arctic shipping. We must help our northern communities prepare for potential accidents by establishing adequate response and search-and-rescue capabilities. Despite the challenges, with sufficient preparation, communities and our state have the opportunity to reap the economic benefits from increased access.

Influential leaders are coming to us next week. As Alaskans, we can use the conference to help others in the U.S. recognize the need for a thorough understanding of the changing Arctic system. We must develop plans to adapt to change, and gather the resources for Alaska and other affected areas to implement those plans. We need to develop practical solutions to the challenges that accompany this changing climate. We need to envision and understand the opportunities that lie before us and then we must position ourselves to seize those opportunities. We cannot pretend our environment is not changing. Alaska's ability to thrive in this new climate regime will depend upon wise choices and investments made in the coming decades. Alaska must assume this leadership role.

Larry Hinzman is interim vice chancellor for research and a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com

Larry Hinzman

Larry Hinzman is interim vice chancellor of research and a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. 

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