With temperatures plunging below zero this week and no snow in sight, Alaska outdoor lovers are itchy to slap on skates and glide across frozen water at places like Potter Marsh or Westchester Lagoon.
Do they risk an icy plunge that could prove uncomfortable at best or deadly at worst?
Maybe. Maybe not.
Josh Durand, Anchorage's parks superintendent, said the city will take ice-thickness measurements Tuesday. He's looking for 12 inches before lake ice is safe enough to support a 2-ton pickup truck carrying 350 gallons of water, which adds more than another ton. The machinery is used to hot-mop ice and remove snow from the Westchester Lagoon surface.
A foot is more than the 9 inches of ice the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says is the safety standard, but Westchester Lagoon, Cheney Lake and Goose Lake all have varying thicknesses because of water flow beneath.
Nevertheless, walkers and skaters were on Westchester Lagoon and Potter Marsh as early as Thursday, and with mercury stuck around zero most of the day Monday, ice can form quickly.
According to a Lake Ice Blog (http://lakeice.squarespace.com/ice-growth/), lake ice can grow at a rate of 3 inches a day if the temperature remains at zero. A week at zero should yield about 12 inches of ice, about double what a week at 20 degrees would produce.
"Reality is more complicated," acknowledges the website. "The temperature is rarely constant for more than a few hours ... Sun angle is a big factor, as is the presence or lack of sun ... Cold wind increases heat removal from the top of the ice. Snow is a very effective insulator and it dramatically slows growth."
Anchorage parks and recreational officials will make an announcement when it considers the conditions safe.
"We don't have a rule," Durand said, "but I don't think (skating) would be recommended yet. Water is circulating under some of our ponds, so we think ice hasn't had enough of a chance to set up."
He expected to update the municipality's online ice status report by Thursday. On Monday, details from March remained on the site.
Durand added that Parks and Recreation staffers have been working on the Cuddy Midtown Skate Pond, the Tikishla-Scotty Gomez rink and the Delaney rinks, and he expects they will be ready for skaters by Thursday.
On Monday afternoon, the speedskating oval at the Cuddy Park had been groomed and was ready for skaters. But the only life on it and the adjacent Cuddy pond were a few dozen mallards hunkered down on the ice like penguins while others swam in the open water nearby.
"The ice is IN, and it's good stuff," a skater named Bart wrote of Potter Marsh on the Cross Country Alaska website Sunday. "Pretty smooth, no snow cover and quite a crowd was out there today. I didn't try the far north end, but everything from the mid-section south looked like 6 inches of ice or more and all of it was good. Go play!"
Of course, some Alaskans prefer skating in the backcountry or on large lakes. Anchorage attorney Neil O'Donnell did a trip in January from Mud Lake in the Mat-Su over to Jim Creek for a 20-mile skate, but this past weekend, he headed north to Big Lake instead.
"It was beautiful, actually," he said Monday. "Some of the bays were a little bumpy. We only skated about a mile or so and decided it wasn't thick enough, so we headed back."
Better to retreat and live to skate another day.
In addition to long-bladed touring or nordic skates, careful backcountry skater carry safety equipment, including a throw bag, ice claws, fire starter, and some dry clothes.
Lundhag and Isvidda nordic skates that clip onto ski boots and feature long blades up to 55 centimeters long are popular. Long blades allow skaters to maintain speed without as many strides, and since the blade doesn't have a cavity, they're exceptionally stable. "It's like a sea kayak vs. a river kayak," said Paul Denkewalter of Alaska Mountaineering and Hiking.
Some retailers, like AMH, offer rentals.
Contact Mike Campbell at mcampbell@alaskadispatch.com. Alaska Dispatch News reporter Teagan Hanlon contributed to this report.