The forecast for travel in 2016 is right out of a Clint Eastwood movie; there's the good, the bad and the ugly.
By most counts, 2015 was a good year for travel to Alaska. The airlines and cruise ships all plan to return in force for the summer season. New hotels are being constructed. The Alaska Railroad is planning for a big summer season — not only with its own train cars, but hauling private cars from cruise lines and tour operators.
This matters to Alaska travelers because we fly, ride or sail on the back-haul from the tourists. Alaska Airlines is unique among the incumbent airlines: flying year-round to hotspots like Barrow, Nome, Kodiak and Petersburg for residents and travelers alike. Other airlines, including Delta, United and American, operate on a limited schedule year-round. But the rest, including Air Canada, Sun Country, JetBlue, Condor and Icelandair come in the summer months. Also, our year-round carriers add more flights as the summertime rush approaches.
Here's some good news: If you live in Anchorage, Juneau or Fairbanks, fares from these three cities to Seattle, Los Angeles and other destinations remain low, due to Delta's year-round schedule and the ongoing battle with Alaska Airlines. For example, fares from Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau to Los Angeles are hovering around $270 round-trip.
More good news: In mid-May, when Delta resumes service to both Sitka and Ketchikan, travelers will be able to fly to Los Angeles for less than $270 round-trip.
Even more good news: Fares from Anchorage to Seattle are hovering at $303 round-trip right now. But on May 5, when JetBlue starts its seasonal flights, the fares will drop to $197 round-trip.
From Anchorage, JetBlue is a real game-changer on fares to Seattle, Portland and Long Beach. For other destinations, you can thank Delta for the low fares, whether you fly them or not. The same is true for travelers in other Alaska cities (Fairbanks, Juneau, Sitka and Ketchikan). Even if you elect to fly Alaska Airlines, Delta's presence is the reason fares are lower. Just as Delta offers two checked bags free for Alaska residents (responding to Alaska's Club 49 offer), Alaska is reducing its fares in order to remain price-competitive.
On the international front, there's good news and bad news. On May 17, Condor resumes its seasonal nonstop service to Frankfurt. The bad news is that it costs more to fly: $1,113 round-trip in May. The good news is the exchange rate is in our favor. On my last trip to Europe, we paid $1.37 for each euro. Today, that same euro costs $1.09, a 20 percent drop.
More bad news: The other over-the-top airline, Icelandair, also has boosted its rates. An early-season trip to Oslo from Anchorage is $1,006 round-trip. There's some good news in there as well, though. First, Icelandair is one of Alaska Airlines' newest mileage partners. That means you can earn and burn miles for your trips this summer.
The other good news for Icelandair travelers is this: You get a free stop in Reykjavik. Take the stop, if only to experience the Blue Lagoon. This hot spring is located between downtown and the airport. It's a great way to get ready for your flight. You will be relaxed and ready for anything!
Frequent fliers will be facing more bad news: Pay up to get the best perks in 2016. That's particularly true if you fly on Delta, United or American. Delta was the first to devalue their SkyMiles program. United's Mileage Plus program was the next to make the move from miles flown to dollars spent. And now American Airlines is revising its AAdvantage program to a dollars-spent plan starting in mid-2016.
All of these changes make Alaska Air's Mileage Plan the standout favorite with frequent fliers, particularly here in Alaska. Partners include Ravn Alaska, PenAir, Emirates, Icelandair, Hainan Airways, Aeromexico, Qantas, Fiji Air and Cathay Pacific. Ironically, both Delta and American also participate in Alaska's plan.
There's another nice bonus with Alaska's plan: the in-state award of just 15,000 miles. You can fly from Ketchikan to Barrow, or from Anchorage to Adak for as little as 15,000 miles. This is a great option to see the state in 2016!
Most of the ugly news comes from the security area. The first is the news that the Transportation Security Administration now can mandate that you go through the electronic scanners. Up to this point, travelers have the option for a pat-down if they opt out of the scanners. TSA representatives indicate this will only impact a small number of travelers. Yeah. You and me.
The other security flap involves drivers' licenses from states that have not submitted to the federal Real ID Act provisions. Several states, including Alaska and Washington, opted out of the Real ID provisions because of privacy or cost concerns. Alaska has received a waiver until October 2016, after which licenses may not be valid ID for the TSA. Just in case, I recommend getting a passport.
The worst news of all for travelers in 2016: the proliferation of extra fees. Most of the time, we're able to get a break on the checked luggage fees because of Alaska's Club 49 agreement and Delta's special arrangement. But everywhere else, be prepared to pay up. Do you want to change your ticket? That can cost you $100-$200, plus any difference in fare. Some airlines, like American, charge extra for many aisle or window seats. Do you want to take a pet on board? Be prepared to pay up. There are extra charges for unaccompanied minors, too. Oh, don't forget in-flight Wi-Fi, meals and beverages.
Traveling still is a great deal, of course, But it's better if you're prepared before you're surprised at the airport.
Scott McMurren is an Anchorage-based marketing consultant, serving clients in the transportation, hospitality, media and specialty destination sectors, among others. Contact him by email at zoom907@me.com. You can follow him on Twitter (@alaskatravelGRM) and alaskatravelgram.com. For more information, visit alaskatravelgram.com/about.