Gov. Bill Walker's labyrinthine fiscal plan to plug the state's budget gap -- more a smoking crater than a gap nowadays -- has far too many moving parts, far too many gizmos, doodads and doohickeys for mere mortals to fully understand it or its eventual consequences.
Despite that, proponents inside and outside government have deployed consultants and lobbyists and arm-twisters in some sort of high-stakes, pressure-cooker sleazefest to "empower" lawmakers to get it done -- this very moment! None of that will make the work simpler, faster or less tortuous, because it is chock full of worrisome and complex components we all should be fretting about. A lot. This puppy needs some time.
It contains changes, for instance, in the oil and gas credit system that would turn it into a low-interest loan program. It contains an income tax. A sales tax, maybe. A transfer of about $3 billion of the Constitutional Budget Reserve to the sacrosanct Permanent Fund's earnings reserve. (Never mind the constitutional questions.) A sustainable draw from the fund's earnings reserve to the general fund. A higher minimum oil tax. Increases in booze and fuel taxes.
Not enough? How about plowing all taxes and half Alaska's oil royalty income into the Permanent Fund. Then there is Walker's so-called Alaska Permanent Fund Protection Act that "replumbs" how the dividend is funded, leaving it entirely to oil production and prices, not Permanent Fund earnings.
Imagine ramming all that through in one quick legislative session -- or even two. What in grandma's pantry could possibly go wrong? Imagine ramming all that through while a suspicious, untrusting public -- "Here, bub, tax this!" -- wants to put knots on your noggin. Imagine ramming all that through in an election year.
Despite Walker's plan seismically revamping how Alaska would fund government, use its Permanent Fund and pay dividends to its residents, its advocates want the job done quickly, contending Alaska is broke. Ron Duncan, GCI's president and CEO, has pulled together large Alaska businesses, unions, a former governor, Native corporation executives and various others in a bunch called "Alaska's Future" to push hard for using the Permanent Fund's earnings.
They say investment, jobs and the state's credit rating will suffer -- affecting not only state government but localities too -- if the plan to use fund earnings is not advanced with all due haste.
In a recent column, I suggested Alaska is a few years away from being stone broke and advocated cutting more government spending before doing anything else, believing as I do that instituting taxes and dipping into the earnings first would leave government untouched and unaccountable. I said we should go slow and get it right, find a balanced, sensible approach -- something we should have started decades ago. I said Duncan and his people are not wrong, just premature.
"I was very disappointed with your article today," Duncan wrote in an email about my "take your time" column. "You are feeding people's fantasies when you suggest that we can wait to address this problem." He was unhappy. I get that, but then I am disappointed that my cable bill is so outlandishly high it often seems a fantasy -- and nobody does squat about that.
At least he was nicer than the Rasmuson Foundation's CEO and president, Diane Kaplan, who late last year, after I pointed out her organization's bogus push poll on the subject, suggested I was "UnAlaskan." Ouch.
That proponents want this raft of major legislation pushed though in a wink of the eye is unfair to everybody involved in the process. Worse, it is unfair to ordinary Alaskans.
Alaska is changing; that something must be done is obvious. We are nearly $4 billion in the hole; next year looks no better. We paid scant attention as government grew beyond our means. Recovering is going to involve cutting -- yes, even the most sacred of cows, education and Medicaid -- adding a mix of taxes and using the Permanent Fund in one way or another. And, yes, dividends likely will shrink.
Doing it all at once invites calamity. Why not a measured approach? Sure, we need to show bonding agencies we are serious about our red mess, but charging ahead at stumble speed does nobody any good. Quick law is bad law. Why not take a one-time draw from the fund's earnings reserve this year to buy breathing room and begin to evaluate and pass taxes and look hard at plans such as Walker's New Sustainable Alaska Plan?
That would show the S&Ps of the world that Alaska is seriously moving to address its fiscal woes, give Alaska time to catch up -- and begin to get the job done.
Start with the easy stuff. Get it right, because we cannot afford to get it wrong.
Paul Jenkins is editor of the AnchorageDailyPlanet.com, a division of Porcaro Communications.
The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary@alaskadispatch.com. Send submissions shorter than 200 words to letters@alaskadispatch.com or click here to submit via any Web browser.