Church bells are ringing in White Mountain, and that can only mean one thing. The first Iditarod team has rounded the bend and is coming into the final stop on this incredible 1,000-mile journey.
Dallas Seavey arrived in White Mountain in full control, and if his performance wasn't great enough already, he has somehow managed to arrive into the checkpoint at the exact same time that he arrived in 2014, when he set the current race record.
Not far behind the race leader is his dad and last year's runner-up, Mitch Seavey, who will stop at nothing in his quest to win this race a third time, even if that means passing his son on Front Street.
Rounding out the top three is 2015 Yukon Quest champion Brent Sass.
The 2014 Iditarod finish was one for the record books, and the final 80-mile run from White Mountain to Front Street included one of the worst storms the Iditarod has ever seen. Through it emerged young Dallas Seavey to seize his second Iditarod.
Considering the conditions Seavey encountered in the 2014 storm, compared to the forecast in Nome this year (9 degrees, clear skies, a slight wind from the northeast), I'd assume a slightly faster run than two years ago.
If that turns out to be right and Seavey arrives before 4:04 a.m. (plus 19 seconds) Tuesday morning, his fourth title will be the fastest Iditarod ever.
Behind the top three, Aliy Zirkle seems a lock for fourth place and Wade Marrs in fifth is trying to fend off an surge of talented mushers chasing him, with Kuskokwim 300 champion Pete Kaiser looming as the biggest threat.
At midday Monday, mushers from fifth to 13th place were on the 50-mile trail between Koyuk and Elim, and surely at least one of them will make the long haul from Koyuk to White Mountain, skipping Elim and shuffling up the leaderboard.
No doubt the race within the race for top-10 positions is in full force.
How did we get here?
This year's field was one of the most talented to ever set out to Nome, including seven Iditarod champions and six Yukon Quest winners.
Amid such talent, the question is: How did Dallas Seavey, Mitch Seavey and Sass separate themselves from the onslaught of mushers now a ways behind them?
The early race leaders have long since dropped down the rankings:
• Ketil Reitan, first into Skwentna, is now in 27th behind seven dogs.
• Hugh Neff, who led into Rohn, is now 22nd.
• Nicolas Petit, who led into Rainy Pass and Nikolai, remains a solid ninth.
The three race leaders could not have had more dissimilar schedules, but at the end of the day, they will all be within two hours of each other out of White Mountain.
Race leader Dallas Seavey emerged from the shadows for the first time when he led the race into McGrath, 300 miles from the start. Once there, he quickly bedded his team down for a nap and signaled to everyone that he was heading farther down the trail to take his 24-hour break.
Seavey continued to run a somewhat conservative pace and led the race into Cripple for his long break, the whole time resting two to four dogs in the trailer he built for his "monster" crew.
Seavey then made the run from his 24-hour stop in Cripple through the hills to Ruby in one shot and, in an effort to maintain his speed, took his mandatory eight-hour rest at the first village on the Yukon River. Seavey then ran conservatively along the Yukon River, stopping at both Galena and Nulato for substantial rests.
By then, he was in full race mode. The trailer in which he had been carrying dogs for the better part of 600 miles was gone as he blew through Kaltag, instead camping en route to Unalakleet. From there on, Seavey was rolling — rolling through Shaktoolik, Koyuk and Elim, essentially breaking the run down the Norton Sound coast from Unalakleet to White Mountain into three even runs with short rests up to three hours in the middle.
By comparison, most mushers need four runs to cover the same distance.
It all adds up to this: After 900 miles of well-executed racing, Seavey holds a 39-minute lead over his dad, who has remained close to his son most of the way.
Sass impressive
Sass did his homework before the Iditarod and realized a conservative pace at the beginning is the key to success. He kept his runs to around seven hours with solid breaks in the middle, but Sass abandoned his conservative schedule and made a long push into Ophir where he claimed the lead.
Sass then continued his long run-short rest mentality that he perfected in 2015, when he won the Yukon Quest. Aside from his mandatory eight-hour stop in Nulato, he continued to leapfrog checkpoints and put in nine-plus hour runs with two-to-four hour rests in the middle. He chased Dallas Seavey down the coast, blowing through Elim after an incredibly impressive run. That he trails Dallas Seavey by just two hours as they sit in White Mountain is evidence of his racing acumen.
The race is never over until the burled arch at the Nome finish is crossed, but Dallas Seavey is the most feared competitor on this final 80-mile stretch.
Having known and raced against the father-son duo for many years, I don't expect either to take it easy on the other as they race to the finish.
Jake Berkowitz is a three-time Iditarod finisher, including an eighth-place finish in 2013, when he was awarded the Alaska Airlines Leonhard Seppala Humanitarian Award. He has finished the Yukon Quest twice, both times in fourth place, and won the Rookie of the Year award in 2012. This is his first year of Iditarod commentary for Alaska Dispatch News. Look for his commentaries daily during the race.