Businesses in Alaska are likely worrying more and more about the state's economy as low oil prices fuel layoffs and a state budget deficit of more than $4 billion.
But amid that feeling of uncertainty are bright sides and business opportunities. That was one focus of Northrim Bank's annual economic seminar held Tuesday in Anchorage.
Representatives from Northrim encouraged a room of about 300 people at the Dena'ina Civic and Convention Center not to overreact to negative predictions for what will happen to Alaska's economy in the near future -- the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development predicts this year will see the first annual jobs dip since 2009, for example -- but instead to make preparations to brace for a downturn and look at the bright spots.
A stable real estate market, an increase in per capita income in Alaska last year and predictions for job growth in some industries such as hospitality and health care are the positives that Northrim hopes will bolster confidence.
"Overall, what I'd like to say is, don't panic," said Mark Edwards, an economist with Northrim, while projecting a slide that read "DON'T PANIC!" overhead.
"There are some clear negatives in the economy," he said, pointing to oil and gas, related construction and the state budget. "But there's also a lot of positives as well. You can have everything from fearful panic to overconfidence."
Somewhere in the middle, he said, is where people should make wise decisions and make sure they don't "overreact to external information."
"What's better than panicking is preparing," in order for businesses to survive the expected downturn, Edwards said.
He encouraged companies to review their financial planning and do more research into which economic variables will hit them hardest. Businesses might be able to determine which underperforming assets to get rid of, for example. They should also stay in closer contact with customers, who might have a harder time making payments than in a healthier economy, he said.
"You want to shift the focus from past problems to future opportunities," Edwards said. "That will help productivity and morale of your employees."
Joe Schierhorn, president and CEO of Northrim Bank, said that the company is "cautiously optimistic" that the state will be able to solve the budget deficit.
Gunnar Knapp, director of the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage, said he thought Northrim's message on Tuesday made a lot of sense.
"The growth in personal income last year, the slight increase in jobs from growth in tourism ... these do not fully offset, by any means, the worries that we have," said Knapp, who recently worked on an extensive ISER report about the possible outcomes of lawmakers' decisions to bridge the budget gap. "But they should be a reminder that it is, by no means, all bad news."
That ISER report found that economic impacts will be unavoidable and complicated to understand, no matter what legislators decide to do with the state budget.
And Northrim is wary about the future too. In a recent report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Northrim BanCorp Inc., the bank's parent company, said that "current economic conditions continue to pose significant challenges for us."