As Alaska's capitol settles from Gov. Sean Parnell's decision to pull his oil tax reform legislation -- just days after his Revenue Department committed hara-kari in front of the Senate Resources Committee -- the question becomes what is the road back for the Parnell administration?
Consider my rant a roadmap.
First, let's get some damn data. The administration's roadshow can be summed up in two slides: the North Slope decline curve and a comparative chart showing North Dakota and Texas passing Alaska's oil production. When someone says Alaskans are moving south, I think that's a few less people to wait behind at Costco.
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The Parnell administration needs to present to the public more specific data on the economics supporting oil tax reform -- economic indicators such as growing state spending compared to declining oil production and state tax revenue; the projected level of capital investment and its short- and long-term impacts on the state treasury, and the fiscal projections if the status quo is maintained.
In addition, Parnell's people need to clearly dispel the myths that have been spread during the debate over tax reform. They need to answer questions like:
-Why is employment at records highs?
-Why are there so many new explorers?
-Why don't we just sue the oil companies?
-Why should we incentivize something they're going to do already?
-Just how much investment will the state realize from these reforms?
They also need to address the discrepancies between what they're saying and what they've written in the Revenue Department's guide. Are capital expenditures down on the North Slope or are they up? Only they can tell us.
Second, the Parnell administration needs to get a new point person on oil and gas legislative issues. Over the last year, armed with only twisted facts, Democratic lawmakers have run circles around the Parnell administration in messaging. The absence of an articulate voice framing the debate with facts has allowed the vacuum to be filled with half-truths and distorted data points by tax-reform opponents.
Third, the Parnell Administration must get personal. The public opinion polls show that Gov. Parnell has strong approval ratings. Yet, while Alaskans have given the governor high marks, he hasn't closed the deal with selling his oil tax reform package.
Since the introduction of HB110, there has been little or no public education about the need, the plan and the benefits. Compared to ACES oil tax bill, where Gov. Sarah Palin administration hosted community meetings across the state in 2007, there has been no offensive move by the Parnell administration to inquire and inform.
Fourth, ask for the goods. Every oil and gas company on the North Slope has proprietary data that it is under no obligation to share. This is common in any industry, much to the dismay of some senators who fantasize about SWAT teams and subpoenas descending on the ConocoPhillips building. However, there is certainly nothing wrong with at least asking beyond the scope in order to provide meaningful data. If for no other reason, this would be good because you know the Senate will ask Parnell if he's demanded the data.
Fifth, the governor and his administration must get more engaged. Alaskans would rather listen to their governor speak about an issue than a bunch of cackling lawmakers. Make better use of your bully pulpit. Carry your battle to every town council, school council and community council. Fight the accusation with vigor that your prior occupation (Parnell was an oil lawyer) has any relation to the steps you are now taking to protect Alaska's future economy.
Talk about the contraction of federal funds and the growing dependence on state government spending. Talk about the need to invest now while we have the oil reserves to cover the upfront costs. Talk about the importance of continued state investment in their community. Talk about how this isn't a "historic gamble," as Senate President Gary Stevens (R-Kodiak) has called it.
They say he who fights and runs away lives to fight another day. The governor has exactly nine months to travel from impotent to impressive.
Time to hit the road, Gov. Parnell
Andrew Halcro is the publisher of AndrewHalcro.com, a blog devoted to Alaska issues and politics, where this commentary first appeared. He is president of Halcro Strategies and Avis/Alaska Rent-A-Car, his family business. Halcro served in the Alaska House of Representatives from 1999 to 2003, and he ran for governor in 2006 as an Independent.