One out of 20 children entering ninth grade in Alaska will have a college degree 10 years later, giving the state one of the worst postsecondary-education rates in the nation.
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Alaska's efforts to improve the dropout problem over the past decade have also sunk. More than one in three ninth-graders will leave school before getting a diploma.
These results from a new state study released today show a faltering Alaska education system.
"(This) really sends the message of how immediate the need is and the gravity of the situation," said Diane Barrans, executive director of the state's Postsecondary Education Commission, which released the study.
The report found Alaska ranking at the bottom of educational attainment indicators -- from getting children through high school to achieving an advanced degree in a timely manner.
Alaska is:
Eighth from the bottom among states in the number of ninth-graders graduating four years later.
Fourth from the bottom in high school seniors going directly to college.
Last in the number of college freshmen receiving a bachelor's degree within 150 percent of the normal program length.
The commission, which was charged by statute with supporting postsecondary access in 2002, has achieved some gains with low-income Alaskans going to college, said Barrans, but the overall rate of Alaskans going to college has not changed.
The problem is cultural, she and the study's author say.
"Alaska is a state of individualism, of people doing their own thing," said the study's author, Ron Phipps, of the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for Higher Education Policy. Phipps used to live in Juneau and was a previous head of the state commission.
"Like a sieve, kids are falling away," he said.
TOUGH ROAD FOR DROPOUTS
First, the state needs to start by getting kids through high school.
"If you don't finish the 12th grade, you aren't going anywhere," Phipps said.
The report cites grim statistics about how high school dropouts are more likely to end up in prison, have poor health or seek state public assistance.
Larry LeDoux, recently appointed commissioner for the state Department of Education and Early Development and slated to begin the job in July, said he hadn't read the report and wouldn't comment on it yet. He said, though, he knows Alaska has problems.
"We accept that we definitely have challenges before us," he said from his Kodiak office, where he is still superintendent of the school district there.
He said he's not sure whether he believes the dropout rates -- they can often be skewed, he said -- but if they are true, he has his work cut out for him.
ALASKA JOBS CHANGING
Today, Alaska's culture is not a college-going one. Kids look at parents who don't have degrees but who have achieved financial success working on the North Slope or in construction and don't see the need to get more education than they did. That culture is largely tied into roots of resource extraction -- oil, lumber, mining or fishing, Barrans said.
"Alaska has been a state where people could live in a substantial manner in the past. ... If you were a willing, hard worker and could train on the job, you had a return on that," she said.
But Alaska is fast becoming a place where without post-high school education, whether that is a four-year college degree or training school, workers will not be able to measure up.
"It's a myth that with a strong back and a clear mind you can have a well-paying job in Alaska," she said.
To parents and students who balk at the costs of higher education, the commission wants better information flow from the high schools about financial aid, and strategies to cope with bills.
"There is a perception that postsecondary education is not affordable," Barrans said. "In my view, they can't afford not to invest in themselves."
CATCH THEM YOUNG
To change this, the commission is thinking about some bold moves, including requiring all high school students to take college-prep classes. The idea is that they can only opt out of rigorous math and English classes if their parents sign waivers.
Another idea is to plant the seed of college or technical school early in children's minds, a project the commission has already begun.
At Willow Crest Elementary last week, members of the commission asked second- and third-graders what they wanted to be when they grow up.
In Carol Jerue's classroom, children shot up their hands enthusiastically volunteering that they wanted to be -- among various careers -- a lifeguard, a drummer, a hairdresser. Then the kids were asked to draw pictures of there futures.
Nine-year-old Nyajal Barjuong, the daughter of Sudanese refugees, drew pictures of two careers, a basketball player and a singer. "That would be the most fun," she said.
Jared Collver, 8, outlined a car with black crayon and some stick figures. He said his dream is to be on the TV show "Pimp My Ride."
When asked if they wanted to go to college, both kids asked, "Why?"
To get more information about the report or get a copy of it contact collegeandcareer@alaska.gov.
Find Megan Holland online at adn.com/contact/mholland or call 257-4343.