Alaska Fishing

WASILLA -- New state reports could help shed light on what or who is responsible for the string of dismal red salmon runs in the Susitna Valley.

More likely, however, is the possibility the new data will only add to the long-running debate over the issue.

Larry Engel, a former state sportfisheries biologist and member of a Matanuska-Susitna Borough mayor's task force looking at the fisheries, said the new data, some of which was released this week, is a step forward.

It includes better estimates of how many Mat-Su-bound fish are intercepted by commercial fleets, and will help check the state's current method of estimating returns based on a sonar counter in the Yentna River. But, he said, as far as actually pinning down the cause of the poor runs, "I don't see anything right now."

Jeff Fox, a state fisheries manager who oversees the commercial fisheries in Upper Cook Inlet, also agreed the new information held no "silver bullet."

The reports are part of a $1.6 million study the state approved in 2005 in partnership with Cook Inlet Aquaculture Association because of concern about the dismal runs.

The studies include counting the number of reds, or sockeyes, returning to several area lakes, testing the water quality in those lakes and genetic testing of commercially caught salmon to identify how many Valley-bound fish are intercepted by commercial fleets from the Kenai Peninsula. The results of a study that involved tagging and tracking red salmon in the Susitna River drainage is also scheduled to be released later this month.

The reports are coming in advance of a state Board of Fisheries meeting in February at which the board is scheduled to hear several proposals dealing with red salmon runs.

MISSED SPAWNING GOALS

A string of bad runs that included returns to the Susitna River, as measured by a sonar counter on the Yentna River, brought the issue to a head in 2005. Returning salmon numbers failed to meet state escapement goals for four of the previous five years.

Theories for those poor returns range from Kenai Peninsula commercial fleets taking too many Mat-Su-bound fish to pike eating sockeye fry and beaver dams blocking returning salmon.

Of note to many in the recently released reports were the data on commercially intercepted fish. Those results were based on new testing techniques that allow biologists to more accurately type fish by area than in the past.

It showed that in 2007, Kenai driftnetters caught almost 160,000 red salmon bound for Mat-Su streams.

Longtime Mat-Su area fishing guide Andy Couch, a member of the Matanuska Valley Fish and Game advisory committee, said the catch size is a clear sign the commercial fleet took more than it should in a year when the Yentna River fell short of its minimum goal of 90,000, as measured by a state sonar counter.

INSIGNIFICANT NUMBER

But Fox, who manages the commercial fisheries, said the 157,000 reds were insignificant compared to the 1.8 million caught by the fleet, the majority of which were headed for Kenai rivers. He also noted that in the previous two years the fleet caught far fewer Mat-Su-bound reds -- about 10,000 and 20,000 -- respectively. Yet, the Mat-Su returns were still low, he said.

He also noted that counts by the Aquaculture Association showed Shell and Judd lakes in the Mat-Su had some of the highest-ever numbers of reds return in 2006 and 2007. If the fish are getting back to some lakes but not others, that may point to a problem with fish survival in the lakes, he said.

Executive director Gary Fandrei of the Aquaculture Association said his crews are working on an answer to that last question by doing water quality studies in seven area lakes and counting outgoing smolt from those lakes.

He also noted that in at least one lake, a beaver dam affected the salmon. Crews counting salmon in 2006 at Shell Lake pulled out a beaver dam, and the next day saw a flood of 21,000 salmon, he said.

Find S.J. Komarnitsky at www.adn.com/contacts/skomarnitsky or 352-6714.

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