Anchorage Daily News

We have been Realtors in Anchorage long enough to know we are going to see a surge of activity in the residential real estate market this fall.

You can't give more than $3,300 to every resident who qualifies for the Alaska Permanent Fund dividend and not feel the effects. Compound the PFD and energy rebate with the $7,500 tax incentive for first-time home buyers, as earmarked in the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, and the effect must be positive for Alaska.

The real question is how are we doing now, before the surge? How does our situation differ from the much-publicized woes felt in other parts of the nation?

From a supply-and-demand standpoint, the supply of houses actively on the market started to change at the beginning of the year when compared to the same time in 2007. Supply was higher through the first four months, although on a steady decline. Then in May, the downward trend of fewer homes on the market broke below 2007's monthly numbers and has continued. Numbers for September are anticipated to continue in the same direction as the supply continues to tighten.

Percentage of change in number of actively marketed houses in 2008 when compared to the same month in 2007:

• January -- up 8.6 percent.

• February -- up 7.2 percent.

• March -- up 4.8 percent.

• April -- up 0.3 percent.

• May -- down 2.7 percent.

• June -- down 10.6 percent.

• July -- down 15.2 percent.

• August -- down 17.0 percent.

• September -- down 17.6 percent (estimated).

While supply is decreasing, we anticipate demand to grow because of the reasons above.

For first-time buyers, the $7,500 tax credit will be a bonus -- even if additional strings are attached and the effect is spread out over 15 years. For a family of four, the PFD and the energy rebate will give them more than $12,000 to use toward a home purchase. For families trying to save for down payment and closing costs, this will definitely help. However, they must act quickly to get the maximum benefit of current financing guidelines before the new stricter recovery-act regulations and requirements take effect.

One example of financial tightening occurs after January. At that time, the minimum down payment changes to a required cash investment of 3.5 percent in addition to the funds needed for closing costs.

As demand further decreases the supply of houses for sale, look for prices to increase. Currently, the year-to-date median sales price for existing homes is the same at $285,000 for both 2007 and 2008. The average sales price of $323,022 in 2008 is just 1 percent higher when compared to $319,775 in 2007. New construction showed more dramatic price differences with the median sales price of $382,000 in 2008 compared to $396,262 in 2007 -- a decrease of 3.6 percent. However, the average sales price increased to $448,102 in 2008 compared to $432,328 in 2007 -- an increase of 3.6 percent.

Finally, the improved outlook for the gas pipeline brings the likelihood of more jobs to Alaska. Of course, it doesn't hurt having an Alaska-grown vice presidential candidate thrown into the mix, as well, to keep the adrenaline pumping.

Clair and Barbara Ramsey are local associate brokers specializing in residential real estate. Their column appears every fourth Friday. Their e-mail address is info@ramseyteam.com.

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