Anchorage Daily News

This might be the year that Anchorage's run of 20 consecutive years of job growth comes to an end.

Click to enlarge

Story tools

Comments (0)

E-mail a friend

Print

Share on Facebook

Digg this

Seed Newsvine

Send link via AIM

Follow on Twitter

Font size : A | A | A

That's what a veteran state economist predicted Wednesday at a luncheon program devoted mostly to a look at the city's softened real estate market.

Neal Fried, a state labor economist who has tracked the local job market for decades, said the city's employers likely will have fewer workers on payroll this year than they did in 2008.

Not many fewer -- a loss of just 200 jobs -- but the first negative job growth since 1988, when a harsh Alaska recession ended. That 20-year growth streak has been a bragging point for city leaders in recent years.

The Lower 48 and global recessions and lower oil prices should nip Alaska's tourism, transportation, construction and oil industries this year. Continued growth in health care, retail and government jobs won't be enough to offset job losses elsewhere, Fried said.

But he also noted that 200 jobs is such a small amount that it would be barely discernible to most people in Anchorage.

In fact, lots of people in the Lower 48 would be quite envious of that statistic, he said. Some economists are predicting that the United States will lose 2 million jobs this year.

The job losses here might not actually happen, Fried said. To emphasize the fuzziness of his forecast, he hoisted a crystal ball, a Magic 8-Ball and a Ouija board on the lectern at the luncheon, hosted by the Anchorage Board of Realtors, on Wednesday.

Some are more optimistic than Fried. The Anchorage Economic Development Corp., a public-private group that encourages Outside business to locate in the city, is predicting a completely flat year for job growth in Anchorage: zero percent. Also, unlike the state's forecast, the AEDC's forecast doesn't foresee any decline in oil and gas industry jobs. "We're seeing a slight increase," said Bill Popp, president.

MIXED BAG FOR HOME SALES

Local Realtors crammed a room at the Anchorage Sheraton on Wednesday to hear Fried and others talk about the local economy.

Some real estate industry officials offered their own predictions for this year, mainly involving local home sales:

• Interest rates, now at their lowest level in years, will probably remain low and might go slightly lower, which will probably spur both new home sales and construction, said John Carman of Homestate Mortgage.

But those low interest rates will probably start rising again by the third quarter of the year, cautioned Colleen Harrington of Alaska USA Mortgage.

• While lower interest rates mean buyers can afford more expensive houses, due to the recent tightening of home-loan standards, at least half the local residents who could have gotten a loan in 2006 would no longer qualify, Carman said.

• Several agents said East Anchorage's star is rising as an attractive place to buy a home and develop new houses. That's because major employers are located there and high-quality land is still available for development on the east side. Nowadays, people want to live closer to their jobs, said Connie Yoshimura, a real estate developer.

• Overall, Anchorage housing prices should remain flat, as they did in 2008. "We've got a pretty stable market here," said Niel Thomas, an agent who analyzes house and condo sale statistics.

• Though the 5th Avenue Mall seems to be doing well, other downtown retail areas are suffering, said Jeff Thon of Jack White Commercial, an local commercial real estate firm. The downtown area now has more vacant retail lease space than it has had in decades, he said.

Find Elizabeth Bluemink online at adn.com/contact/ebluemink or call 257-4317.

ADVERTISEMENT