Anchorage Daily News

Cold showers, chilly living rooms and microwaved cuisine could be in store for Southcentral residents this winter as local utilities and government leaders search for ways to conserve natural gas.

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City and utility executives embraced the conditional use of those tactics and more in announcing a campaign Wednesday aimed at trying to get residents to use less power during winter's peak demand periods, when the mercury plunges deepest.

Under the new scheme, city officials, working with the utilities, created a three-tiered alert system advising consumers how they should help conserve fuel to cut back demand in cases where the system faces an overload.

"I do not want, under my watch, for half the population of the state to not have heat and not have lights," Mayor Dan Sullivan said. "Two of the last three winters we were in situations for several weeks on end where we were at 10 degrees below zero.

"We wanted to be prepared in case there's a problem moving that gas from producers to customers in the extreme situations."

The written plan revealed Wednesday notes that gas supplies are believed to be sufficient to meet Southcentral needs this winter and delivery problems are not anticipated. The plan, however, contends it is "prudent to plan for contingencies."

Last winter, the gas distribution system on several occasions nearly reached its limit. Utility leaders say the problem isn't a lack of gas, it's keeping the lines pressurized during the periods when demand is at its highest.

Here's the new system's color-coded advisory setup, which asks more and more of consumers as conditions worsen:

• Green: Normal operation. Residents are asked to "use energy wisely."

• Yellow: Residents are urged to set living-area thermostats at 65 degrees; 40 degrees in garages. They are asked to lower water heater settings to "warm."

• Red: Thermostats should be set to 60 degrees in living areas and water heater gas valves set to "pilot." Household activities should be consolidated into as few rooms as possible and people should use the microwave for cooking.

It is up to the utilities to initiate a call for more consumer sacrifices but the city manager will issue a new advisory, city spokeswoman Sarah Erkmann said. Many different factors could lead to a potential crisis so there is no set threshold for each alert level, she said.

Asked whether a red alert would have been implemented last winter when the temperature lingered below minus 10 degrees at length, Sullivan said he didn't think so, though a yellow alert might have been possible.

Sullivan said there will be a test of the system Oct. 21 from 6-8 p.m., in which consumers will be asked "to curtail energy use" under the terms of code yellow to see how much power is saved.

At the press conference, Sullivan said officials plan to launch an advertising campaign urging people to adjust their habits if needed, though he acknowledged there was no way to force people to comply. However, executives from Enstar Natural Gas Co. and Chugach Electric Association said their customers are willing to make sacrifices.

"We've actually done surveys to answer that question," said Chugach chief executive Bradley Evans. "Generally speaking, we had about a 70-80 percent reaction that said that they would do voluntary action to reduce the load."

Bob Pickett, chairman of the Regulatory Commission of Alaska, said he thought creating the plan and getting the public on board was "a very responsible effort" that could help avert a potential crisis in the darkest, coldest months.

"I think it's fair to say that the deliverability issues are real and this has been a situation that's been a long time in the making, a lot of reasons for it," he said. "This is real and the actions of conservation on a short-term emergency basis could actually prevent the problem from happening."

Southcentral uses up to an estimated 400 million cubic feet of natural gas a day in winter. Most electricity generated in Southcentral comes from natural gas-fueled power plants -- about 90 percent of Chugach's kilowatt hours and about 85 percent of Municipal Light and Power's come from burning natural gas.

The gas fields in Cook Inlet have long supplied the demand, Sullivan said, but as gas has been extracted the reserves and pressure have declined. And dropping pressure means less gas can move through the lines.

To keep it flowing, the utilities have added compressors to give the gas a push into the Enstar system, ML&P general manager James Posey said. But if a compressor fails, as happened several times last winter, supply might not be able to keep up with demand.

The plan announced Wednesday -- which also includes partners Homer Electric Association and Matanuska Electric Association -- seeks to reduce demand when it is likely to be at its highest. That would be accomplished through the terms of the colored alert system and other voluntary actions like asking commercial operations to reduce their exterior lighting or generate their own power.

It also includes steps the utilities could take to limit demand. For instance, Seward and ML&P could start making power on their own with diesel generators, though that would be more expensive.

Utilities could also curtail power sales to Golden Valley Electric Association and divert gas from the liquefied natural gas plant on the Kenai.

"It's not the volumes of the gas, it's the deliverability," said Colleen Starring, president of Enstar. "During any situation that would require us to become worried that we're going to have an issue, the LNG plant automatically diverts."

In a worst-case scenario, which Sullivan said was unlikely to happen, utilities could implement rolling blackouts around town lasting from 20 to 30 minutes for residences and gas curtailments for commercial accounts.

Asked how long Southcentral Alaskans could expect to find themselves under a warning, Sullivan said it depended on whether the trend of cold snaps seen in the past few winters continues.

"If that continues this winter, next winter, you could be in the yellow situation or maybe even moving into red for a week to 10 days, maybe two weeks," Sullivan said.

Find James Halpin online at adn.com/contact/jhalpin or call him at 257-4589.

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