Anchorage Daily News

WASILLA - If growth in Southcentral Alaska continues with any amount of vigor, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough should see the lion's share.But that's a big if, state labor economist Neal Fried said this week.

Vigorous growth, until recently a given in the Mat-Su, is no longer a sure thing.

"If the state's economy grows ... you'll continue to see larger numbers here," Fried told the Greater Wasilla Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday as part of his annual State of the Mat-Su Economy tour. "But it may not be quite as big as it was."

The economist known for his bow-tie collection predicted a "somewhat muted" job growth rate of only 1 percent to 3 percent for the Mat-Su.

The high end of that prediction matches last year's rate - 3 percent - but deviates sharply from runs of 7 percent and 8 percent employment growth seen here in the first half of the decade.

Basically, it appears job growth in the Mat-Su is coming into line with that of Anchorage. Which makes sense, Fried said later in an interview, seeing as the economies of the two places are so connected. About a third of the Mat-Su labor force commutes to Anchorage, after all.

"It's just that you usually are growing a little faster, or sometimes a lot faster," he said.

Job numbers for the first quarter of this year show a 1 percent increase compared to last year, Fried said.

The construction sector looks a little healthier than last year, he said. Retail looked slightly worse, though only in that first quarter. But jobs generated by the new Sportsman's Warehouse in Wasilla and the Target expected to open in October should change that.

No other sectors appear poised to generate significant new jobs, though Fried said he was curious to see how the hospitality industry fares this summer.

This year, the Mat-Su narrowly lost its recent title as the fastest growing part of Alaska. The borough still expanded some - 3.5 percent between 2006 and 2007 - but the Fairbanks-North Star Borough outstripped it with 3.6 percent growth and Aleutians East Borough posted a 7.6 percent increase.

In the short-term, the groan-inducing price of gasoline likely is having a chilling effect on the number of Anchorage residents moving to the Mat-Su, state number crunchers and Realtors say. Anchorage has been the biggest source of newcomers here.

Long-term, Fried was leery to talk about the state's economy amid volatile financial markets, job losses and sagging housing sales in the Lower 48. He did point out that Alaska's oil fields help insulate the state economy - though maybe not Alaskans' wallets - from some of the economic turmoil of the Lower 48.

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