Anchorage Daily News

Afternoon Updates (find the Fairbanks housing story just below the updates):

It's time to belly-up and discuss the U.S. Senate race. Or as Juneau politics blogger The Stroller calls it, "Mayor Mark or Uncle Ted." In a thoughtful dissection of the pre-trial race, The Stroller analyzes Sen. Stevens chances for re-election. An excerpt:

If, by some strange set of events, the trial does not go forward and Senator Stevens negotiates a plea to reduced charges, a fine, no jail time, is allowed to remain in office and continue his campaign for re-election, can he still win? The polls show the pre-trial race is a toss-up. With Governor Sarah re-invigorating the Republican base for Senator McCain and demoralizing the Democrat's new Obama youth voters, who's gonna show up and vote? Based on the historical performance of these two blocks of voters the Stroller would ordinarily give the advantage in a close race to Senator Stevens. But this time, unless he is able to avoid a public airing of the details of the charges against him, and retain his spot on the ballot, the Stroller believes the Senator's chances of being re-elected are slim at best.

The Seattle Times weighs the Palin seat on the Republican ticket and cites to potential outcomes.

"It's one of the fabulous ironies of all this," said Donald Mitchell, an Anchorage attorney and author of two historical books on Alaska. "With Palin on the ticket, I think it will bring out every Republican and every right-of-center independent voter. It's going to be close, but I'm now betting on Ted."

The Begich campaign concurs that Palin's presence on the ticket is a wild card in the race.

"We would agree that she [Palin] has energized the campaign in Alaska as she has everywhere else," said Judy Hasquet, a spokeswoman for the Begich campaign. "But if you see her as the anti-corruption candidate, then you've also got to vote for Begich because they both represent a new generation of Alaska politicians."

***

Sen. Lyda Green goes on the offensive in Troopergate. Mother Jones blog reports this morning that Lyda Green is making phone calls and pursuing options that might allow the Alaska Senate to convene and deal with Troopergate.

Calling herself a "raging Republican," Green says, she is "absolutely disgusted, embarrassed, and ashamed" by the McCain-Palin campaign's intervention in the Troopergate probe.

Green is alarmed by the McCain squad's use of hardball tactics and "the length to which they're going to impede and delay" the investigation. The local press conferences held by McCain-Palin aides, she adds, "are vile. They're attacking nice people, saying things that are not true. Walt Monegan has been respected in all circles. To see him used as a scapegoat is very disheartening."

The state senator said she is making phone calls and exploring whether she could call the Senate back to either instruct the attorney general to change his position, or to order those subpoenaed to honor that call. Whether the Republican-controlled House would go along is another question.

***

A new Sarah Palin is emerging. An Oakland Tribune columnist cites the Bridge to Nowhere "Thanks, but no thanks" line, only he thinks it should be rewritten to, "Gimme the money for the bridge."

But a different picture of Sarah Palin is beginning to emerge. The McCain campaign would like us to see a straight-talking, gun-toting, moose-eviscerating, lipstick-wearing frontierswoman. Instead, we're beginning to discern an ambitious, opportunistic politician who makes no bones about rewarding friends and punishing those who stand in her way - and who believes that truth is nothing more, and nothing less, than what she says it is.

***

Palin fund-raising e-mail sent Monday blasts Obama campaign lies. CNNPolitics.com quotes the e-mail:

"Friends, in the course of a few weeks, the Obama-Biden Democrats have launched attack after attack on me, my family and John McCain. They're desperate to win and they'll no doubt launch these attacks against other reformers on our ticket."

"We must stop them," Palin writes, "...before they turn these shameful tactics on others we support."

***

Fairbanks housing market falls 23 percent (Fairbanks Daily News-Miner)

First American CoreLogic, a Sacramento-based company that tracks the housing market in cities across the nation, reported the number of single-family homes sold in July declined by 23 percent in Fairbanks - the same downturn as the nation's average - when compared with July of last year. The number of houses sold decreased from 138 to 106, according to the company.

***

Sen. Stevens corruption trial begins today. Monday morning started on a serious legal note as Sen. Ted Stevens corruption trial gets under way in Washington, D.C. The Associated Press placed Stevens in the courtroom before legal procedures began and quoted the judge listing potential witnesses. That list included former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Democratic Sens. Ted Kennedy, Patrick Leahy and Daniel Inoyue and Orrin Hatch. The Anchorage Daily News has reporters at the trial, and updates will be filed on the Alaska Politics blog.

National news media and legal blogs have set up the start of the trial, including CNN.com, ABC News, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg News and the legal blog BLT, Blog of LegalTimes.

A few samples on their takes:

> DOJ raises possibility of Stevens trial continuance (Blog of Legal Times)

As the hours tick away until opening statements in the trial of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, Justice Department prosecutors say they may ask for a continuance if the Williams & Connolly defense team does not immediately produce written summaries of experts who may be called to testify, according to a motion to compel filed Sunday.

Prosecutor Edward Sullivan said the government will request the court to exclude defense expert testimony if written summaries are not turned over in the next 48 hours. Williams & Connolly lawyers say they are not obliged to hand over summaries of expert testimony because the defense team has not asked the government for summaries of their experts.

> Stevens bid for new term may be decided by jurors (Bloomberg.com)

"The campaign trail is no longer in Alaska,'' said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "It's in a federal courtroom. The verdict is the race.''

> A dual fight for Stevens (Washington Post)

The trial is expected to delve into the senator's relationship with Bill Allen, former chairman of oil field supply company Veco (now owned by CH2M Hill). Allen - in a 2007 plea agreement - admitted bribing several state legislators in exchange for votes favoring the oil industry.

Stevens' attorneys have requested that the federal government hand over records of Anchorage police investigations of Allen. Police in the past year have launched two separate investigations into allegations that Allen abused underage women, the department told AlaskaDispatch.com, a news Web site. An attorney for Allen says those allegations are false.

> Who is Bill Allen? (Alaska Dispatch)

Allen, a cooperating federal witness who is expected to testify against Stevens, was long the center of this political-oil world, and his company's questionable straw contributions and secret meetings with state politicians were well-known among insiders. For more than a quarter-century, Allen reigned as one of Alaska's most influential businessmen. A high school drop out, a foul-mouthed son of fruit pickers, a gruff yet handsome man who cut his teeth in the dusty gas fields of New Mexico, Allen founded Veco in 1968, and it grew into the largest Alaska-based oil field services business.

Veco eventually became a $1 billion, worldwide operation, with oil and construction contracts in Russia, Abu Dhabi, Syria, Sudan, Barbados and other countries. Veco contracted with some of the world's largest oil producers: ExxonMobil, BP and ConocoPhillips - the "three big boys," as Allen often referred to them.

***

Sizing up Sarah, Americans are all over the map. Crowds throng to see the Alaska governor-turned-VP-nominee, while an undercurrent of concern over her qualifications surfaces.

> 10,000 welcome McCain-Palin in Minneapolis (Star Tribune)

At both events, participants carried signs playing off the lipstick motif Palin has injected into the campaign -- "Read My Lipstick" read placards at each rally -- spelling out in red and white the key role women voters are expected to play Nov. 4.

> Sarah Palin excites huge Florida crowd (Miami Herald)

"She's the sunrise, not the sunset,'' said Linda Cusumano, 57, of Orlando. "She makes me feel there's nothing we can't do.''

> What small-town American thinks of Sarah Palin (Salon.com)

Norla S., 62, a hospital administrator from Mankato, Minn., also a Hillary Clinton supporter in the primaries, is undecided. "I was so upset that Hillary worked so hard to get there, and then Palin comes in and whoop to the top," she said. She pondered this for a moment. "But if not (Palin), it's just the old-boys network again." Palin's small-town credentials appeal to Norla, although she has questions about Palin's experience. "But what the heck? A lot of people didn't have experience before they got in, and she's got a lot of good common sense."

But other voters, though taken by Palin's personality, appear less comfortable with her social politics, even in conservative regions such as northwestern Iowa. In the town of Le Mars -- the "ice cream capital of the world" whose population of roughly 9,000 was 97 percent white as of the 2000 census -- Cathy, 56, a swing voter who had backed Hillary Clinton, admitted that Palin excites her. Between sips of soup at the Bellissimo Coffee Works, Cathy spoke of how, as a small-town mom, she identifies with Palin. But Palin's hard-line social views are a turnoff. "I really don't care about the gay marriage issue," she said. "I've known gay people all my life."

> The fight for working-class voters (Times Online, London)

"I'm very worried about the economy," said Maria Blahnik, a retired nurse. "I've got four sons, and I told them we're going to have to tighten our belts. Our kids don't know how to. They've never been through tough times." But she was cheered by the selection of Palin and had no doubt she was up to the job.

"I love Sarah. She's already proved that she can do it all. I love it that she is a hockey mom. My husband and his friends have put a picture of her in their hunting cabin. They've normally got pinups of girls with big boobs there, and instead they've got Sarah. Isn't that fun?"

> Palin energizes California Republicans (San Francisco Chronicle)

Ever since her speech to the Republican National Convention on Sept. 3, party officials say volunteers have been contacting California GOP offices in numbers unseen since Ronald Reagan was on the ballot for the White House.

Despite generating all this fear and enthusiasm, the Palin factor hasn't changed the race in California. Obama beats McCain 52 percent to 36 percent in a Field Poll released last week, and neither campaign is broadcasting ads in the state's expensive television markets. On Thursday, Palin canceled her rally and fundraising visit to the state planned for this week.

> Women voters must send a message: Palin isn't qualified (Salt Lake Tribune editorial)

It is not partisan to say that a vice presidential candidate needs to understand this complex, dangerous world with nuance and depth. Palin doesn't. And it is up to women to vote her back to Alaska, where she can see Russia but thankfully not attack it.

> Polishing their buddy act (Time magazine)

Barnstorming through battleground states together, McCain and Palin have developed a buddy act that brings an energy and focus not present when McCain campaigns alone. Before he added Palin to a ticket encumbered with the now-unpopular Republican brand, McCain's events were sparsely attended and sometimes listless. That has all changed.

McCain's team has the running mates appear together far more often than is the norm, forfeiting the mathematical advantage of covering two states at a time in order to keep.

> VIDEO: Alaska Robotics: Sarah Palin is Relatively Awesome (You Tube)

Political satire from a pair of Alaskans: "In this short film we explore the phenomenon of her popularity with Alaskans and analyze her chances for success on a national level."

***

Sarah-Hillary rift is a bad idea for women. The Boston Herald writes that women have more to lose if they let the two dominant women on the U.S. political scene descend into a "cat fight."

There are profound issues dividing the Democrats and Republicans in the upcoming election, and Palin and Clinton provide strong focal points for the many issues that divide their parties and our country. But I worry what will happen if we keep letting this election turn into a cat fight that's not about the issues but about how to be a woman.

It could never happen, but what a ticket they would make. Working together to improve life for everyone, not just for people who think the same way they do. Empathic and collaborative, respectful of differences. Just like we said it would be when women gained political office. Hillary and Sarah. Sarah and Hillary. Sisterhood is powerful.

***

Todd Palin's administrative role might be considered "early Alaskan." The Washington Post reports on the history of Todd Palin's involvement in his wife's political career.

Rick Koch, who served as the public works director in Palmer, 10 miles from Wasilla, and coached the Palins' son in hockey, said the Palins' mix of public and personal should be understood in the context of their early years in Wasilla. "When Todd and Sarah were growing up, the area was probably 35 percent of what it is now. A lot of adults that age really do kind of know each other," he said. "Things were really small up there."

Newsbusters.org, a Web site that lives to debunk liberal media bias, criticizes this story point by point in a story titled "Laughably Lame WaPo hit piece on ‘First Dude.'"

***

FBI searches apartment of alleged Palin hacker. Cnet.com and WBIR.com report that the apartment of David Kernell was searched early Sunday morning, and three of his roommates could testify this week.

Laura Sweeney, a Justice Department public affairs specialist, confirmed that there was investigatory activity relating to the Palin hack in Knoxville, Tenn., over the weekend but said no criminal charges have been filed against anyone.

The blog Web Scout at the Los Angeles Times criticizes the blogosphere for "lynching" the Palin hacker without sufficient evidence.

***

The 2008 presidential campaign considered one of the ugliest. The Arizona Republic reports that the gloves are off in this campaign, with potential ill effects for voters.

"We're not getting the honorable campaign we were promised," said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a University of Pennsylvania expert on political communication and co-director of FactCheck.org. "In an environment in which the nation needs something else, it's been really disappointing."

"I think 2008 has become the ugliest campaign in recent memory," said Darrell West, director of governance studies for the Brookings Institution. "In past races, candidates were more careful to document their claims. . . . There's a lot more noise out there in the media universe, so the candidates assume they can get away with murder."

***

The rest of the world gets the government the United States deserves. In a similar unflattering assessment of our current election, a Canadian commentator for the Ottawa Citizen cites a Pew study showing how watchful the world is of our election.

The Pew study showed that some 95 per cent of Japanese, 90 per cent of Britons and Germans, two-thirds of Poles and Indonesians, and half of Chinese agreed that the U.S. economy influences their country.

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want," H.L. Mencken wrote, "and deserve to get it good and hard." It's that "good and hard" part that explains the astonishing number of foreigners closely following the American presidential campaign. If Canadian voters screw up, they alone suffer. If American voters screw up, they screw us all.

It would be nice if Americans took this into account when they voted but -- as the election of Incurious George and the popularity of Small-town Sarah demonstrate -- most don't. Like parochial dummies in every country, they think about product purchases and backyard barbecues and which candidate they'd rather drink beer with. And they really don't mind if the president knows less about the world than the average National Geographic subscriber.

***

Campaign 2008 is the new media election all right, but which medium? Meanwhile, new media critic Andrew Keen writes in the Independent that this election is not the You Tube election, but the text-message and e-mail election.

First, Barack Obama text-messaged the announcement of his choice of vice-presidential running mate to several hundred thousand of his most intimate friends. Then he came out with a television advertisement suggesting that John McCain's inability to send an email made him unfit to be the next president. And now Governor Sarah Palin, McCain's iconoclastic, gun-toting Alaskan wild- card pick, may have sent too many emails for her own good.

***

Why voters rarely change their minds about a candidate. And on an even more egg-heady note, in Salon.com, a neurologist explains why voters don't change their minds very much about candidates. Partly because we see ourselves as far more competent than we actually are, we are more likely to see our political candidate as more competent than he or she really is.

Feelings of absolute certainty and utter conviction are not rational deliberate conclusions; they are involuntary mental sensations generated by the brain. Like other powerful mental states such as love, anger and fear, they are extraordinarily difficult to dislodge through rational arguments. Just as it's nearly impossible to reason with someone who's enraged and combative, refuting or diminishing one's sense of certainty is extraordinarily difficult. Certainty is neither created by nor dispelled by reason.

In other headlines of interest to Alaskans:

> Rep. Don Young retains his powerful committee seats. (Politico.com)

In addition, both Reps. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.) and Don Young (R-Alaska) retained top committee posts on Appropriations and Natural Resources despite federal probes, which for CBC members means that Pelosi should not give in to GOP demands to oust Rangel.

> Alaska Zoo bear cubs head to Indianapolis (KTUU)

> Bald eagles are a local irritant in Juneau (Juneau Empire)

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