Anchorage Daily News

As another poll emerged Monday showing Sarah Palin leading the hunt to be the Republican choice for governor, Palin's main opponents looked to paint her as wrong for the job.

Gov. Frank Murkowski and former state Sen. John Binkley largely left Palin alone early in the campaign, but with a week to go before the election, each looks to directly weaken her support.

Binkley has started with commercials from former Anchorage mayors criticizing Palin, a former two-term Wasilla mayor who Binkley has said needs more experience. While Murkowski's campaign manager, Mike Scott, wouldn't say exactly what type of commercials the governor has in store, he did say they would include contrast ads and that Palin supports the wrong route for a natural gas pipeline.

On Monday, former Murkowski strategist Dave Dittman released a statewide poll that put Palin far out in front, with 40 percent of the vote among those likely to cast ballots in the Republican primary. Binkley placed second with 29 percent, and Murkowski was third at 17 percent.

Dittman said the survey took place Monday through Sunday, sampling 514 people, with a margin of error of plus or minus about 4 percent. It focused only on the Republican primary for governor but also asked how people feel about the Republican lieutenant governor candidates. (Fewer people liked former Kenai lawmaker Jerry Ward, but many don't know what to make of ex-Anchorage Sen. Sean Parnell.)

Dittman left the Murkowski campaign weeks ago, saying the governor wasn't willing to spend enough of his own money to win the race.

He said he's not working for any candidate now and did the poll on his own. So why'd he do it? "A lot of people were asking me about the election, and I didn't know." One thing to watch will be whether Murkowski supporters assume the governor can't win and migrate to another candidate, he said. "What the last week is going to be about, between Palin and Binkley, is where's the Murkowski vote going to go?"

A poll conducted Aug. 3 by the independent polling firm Rasmussen Reports also gave Palin a double-digit lead.

But Scott said he's seen other surveys that put Binkley or Murkowski in front too, and that it's dangerous to read too much into poll results.

Look no further than the U.S. Senate race two years ago, he said, when polls predicted Murkowski's daughter, Lisa, was about to lose to former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles.

"Even the exit polling, they projected her opponent the winner, and she won," he said.

In June, when the Murkowski campaign was just getting started and Dittman was a key player, Dittman said the strategy would be to tell voters about progress the state has made over the past four years -- and how Murkowski made it happen.

Scott said that will still be part of Murkowski's message during the final week before the primary, with ads about his record on education and crime. But Murkowski will also look to contrast himself with Palin.

Unlike Binkley's ad, the focus won't be Palin's experience, he said. "I think we've got some other things that we want to contrast that are in the public record."

Meantime, Binkley has a two-pronged message, said spokesman Russ Kelly. First, the campaign is looking to convince Murkowski supporters that the governor doesn't have a chance and that they should rally around Binkley.

Second, Binkley will look to contrast himself with Palin, Kelly said. "Experience is the No. 1 reason, because of what experience means in negotiations, tough negotiations with the oil companies, for instance."

Palin said she expects to come under fire. "In the last week or two, folks traditionally go negative if they're trailing."

As for experience, Palin says Murkowski trusted her to be chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission and Binkley's public service as a lawmaker in the '80s is dated compared with her recent role as Wasilla mayor.

Palin said part of her focus this week will be getting supporters to actually show up to vote.

According to Dittman's poll, people feel about as good about Binkley as they do about Palin. Almost 70 percent of those polled had a "very positive" or "somewhat positive" view of both candidates. Fewer than 30 percent had a positive view of Murkowski.

Still, Scott says the Murkowski campaign has momentum.

"We're reaching people that are going to vote, and that's what counts."

Daily News reporter Kyle Hopkins can be reached at khopkins@adn.com.

Candidate debates on the air

Public television and radio stations are airing forums and debates featuring candidates in the Aug. 22 primary election. The programming will culminate with three nights focused on the governor's race.

The "Running" series produced by KAKM Channel 7 in Anchorage will present Southcentral candidates for state House and Senate, the U.S. House, lieutenant governor and governor. "Running" will air tonight, Wednesday and next Monday, starting at 7 p.m. each night. "By The People: Debate For The State," a two-part, live gubernatorial debate co-sponsored by the Anchorage Daily News, airs from 8-9:30 p.m. Thursday and Friday.

Both programs will air on KAKM Channel 7, KSKA FM 91.1, Gavel-to-Gavel, AlaskaOne (the public TV network for Fairbanks, Juneau and Bethel) and on the state-funded rural TV network, ARCS.

"Running" began last night, with candidates for House Districts 13 to 22 and Senate districts H and J.

Here is the schedule for the rest of the programming:

• TONIGHT: "Running," with candidates for House Districts 23 to 32 and Senate Districts L, N and P.

• WEDNESDAY: "Running," with candidates for House Districts 33, 34 and 35, Senate District R, the U.S. House and lieutenant governor. Governor candidates for the Alaska Independence Party, Green Party and Libertarian Party also will appear.

• THURSDAY: "By The People: Debate for the State," with Republican candidates including incumbent Gov. Frank Murkowski, John Binkley and Sarah Palin.

• FRIDAY: "By The People: Debate for the State," with Democratic candidates including former Gov. Tony Knowles and Eric Croft.

• MONDAY: "Running," with Republican governor candidates Murkowski, Binkley and Palin, and Democrats Knowles and Croft.