In October, for example, newspapers across the country -- this one included -- quoted National Weather Service forecasters predicting an El Nino winter. In Anchorage, El Ninos usually usher in warm, stormy weather that tends to shift wildly between rain and snow.

That's what appeared to happen in October, when Anchorage saw five record high temperatures and a monthly average about 3 ½ degrees warmer than normal. The month also ended with a half foot of snow.

Instead of more of the same in November, however, Alaska endured one of its longest cold snaps in years. In Anchorage, 28 out of 30 days were colder than normal, including 24 days of single-digit lows. Coldest of all was the week of Thanksgiving, when six straight days at the city's official weather site on Sand Lake Road dropped below zero. Overall, it was the third coldest November on record. And the snow? Only one inch fell the whole month.

Alaska wasn't alone in missing expectations, however. In California, where an El Nino winter usually means strong storms and possible floods, November's balmy weather there left ski resort owners worrying about a snowless December. And in the state of Washington, which in a typical El Nino winter enjoys sunny skies, floodwater filled the streets of Seattle.

So what happened?

Usually cold snaps here arrive later in the season and don't last more than two weeks, National Weather Service forecaster John Papineau said Wednesday. Having one extend more than three weeks is surprising, especially in November. His colleagues know how it happened, but they can't figure out why.

What they do know, however, is that the national Climate Prediction Center's long-range forecast -- which still calls for Alaska to have a warm winter -- is bound to have its ups and downs. It's not a guarantee every week will be warm.

"It's just a long-term average," Papineau said. "And within that is a huge range, from being very cold to very warm for that time of year -- and somewhere in between."

Beyond that, of course, the season is still young. Winter weather is only just beginning in most of the nation. Sometimes it takes a while for El Ninos to gather steam. So forecasters have their eyes on December.

"A lot of people who are El Nino experts are going to say, 'Well, most of the El Nino (effect) occurs from December through March,' " Papineau said. " 'It's really not El Nino yet.' "

According to those same experts, however, it is an El Nino year. Evidence first began appearing in April, when South Pacific trade winds -- which typically blow from east to west -- suddenly died down and surface sea temperatures near South America moved higher.

When that happens, the typically dry sunny weather along the west coast of South America eventually turns stormy and weather patterns around the world begin to change. (The primary reason the Gulf Coast hurricane season was so mild this summer, some meteorologists say, is because a young El Nino managed to break up the storm pattern in its tracks, not because the threat was exaggerated.)

Eventually, however, the El Nino weather shifts north.

Locally, it usually begins when a long ridge of cool, clear high-pressure air anchors itself between Washington state and Southeast Alaska. With the pressure ridge there acting like a barrier, the jet stream that carries storms from the Aleutians bends north, drenching Anchorage in warm, wet weather. Which might be on its way.

A media advisory issued Monday by the Climate Prediction Center in Maryland noted that sea temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to rise in November, and "El Nino conditions should intensify during the next one to three months."

Accordingly, the prediction for Alaska calls for above normal temperatures from December through February.

That doesn't mean there won't be another cold snap or two, Papineau said, or another miniature version of November. For now, however, Anchorage's winter appears to be returning to normal.

"We should start to see more temperatures in the 20s," he said. "That bitter cold we had should pretty much be done."

Other forecasters are also predicting a week of cloudy skies and moderate winter temperatures for Anchorage. Beyond that, AccuWeather (at accuweather.com) expects more snow, beginning next Sunday, while El Nino watchers anticipate a shift to warmer weather.

Is it still too early to predict the winter's first thaw?

"In terms of like a big warm-up? Boy, I just don't know," Papineau said. "I probably shouldn't speculate."

Neither will the Daily News.

Daily News reporter George Bryson can be reached at gbryson@adn.com.