(Feb. 18, 2001) With Fur Rendezvous sled dog races canceled this year because of snow conditions, Anchorage retailers, hoteliers, cabbies and restaurateurs are banking on the upcoming 2001 Special Olympics World Winter Games to help them recoup their losses. And based on projections by the University of Alaska Anchorage, the largest-ever event held in Alaska could do the trick.

With 8,000 visitors from nearly 80 countries and 4,500 volunteers from around the state expected to pour into Anchorage next month, the city is looking at a $20.6 million cash infusion, according to Scott Goldsmith, professor of economics at UAA. Through a ripple effect, these dollars could translate into $33 million in total sales and a $10 million payroll for Anchorage, Goldsmith projects.

''The total impact will be pretty significant,'' he said.

The Special Olympics have funded a study of the Games' economic impact on Anchorage by Goldsmith and others at UAA's Institute of Social and Economic Research. The report won't be available until spring.

Goldsmith has put together a preliminary fact sheet that shows Anchorage's transportation sector making $1.2 million in sales, $3.7 million for restaurants, and $3.6 million for retail. It also shows 2,000 Anchorage hotel rooms filled for 10 days.

While those numbers may sound sweet to people with something to sell in Anchorage, especially during the off-season, they shouldn't tally their gains just yet. Other host cities have been disappointed by the economic results, including New Haven, Conn., and Raleigh, N.C., where the Special Olympics World Summer Games took place in 1995 and 1999 respectively.

''It doesn't have the same cachet as a Super Bowl. Let's face it. You don't see a lot of corporate jets flying in,'' said Linda Ewing, president of the Special Olympics Minnesota. Ewing said the 1991 summer games in the Twin Cities never expected the nonprofit sporting event to be a windfall and that's not the mission of the Special Olympics anyway. Raising awareness and changing attitudes about mental retardation are what the games are about, she said.

But naturally, some Anchorage entrepreneurs also see dollar signs along with the good will and volunteerism. Restaurants near Kincaid Park, where some competition will take place, are among businesses positioning themselves to cash in.

Tastee Freez has added menu items geared toward athletes and has beefed up staffing to handle an expected customer rush. It's no longer just nachos, burgers and fries at the fast-food place on the corner of Jewel Lake and Raspberry roads.

''We've added chicken Caesar salad, ham and turkey subs, nonsugared drinks and sugar-free yogurt for those working on a low-sugar diet. We should be able to meet almost any dietary request,'' said Rich Owens, owner of Tastee Freez since 1994.

Gesine's, a gourmet restaurant in the same strip mall, plans to hand out coupons to spectators at Kincaid to lure them into the elegant eatery. Like Tastee Freez, Gesine's plans to festoon its exterior with an eye-catching banner welcoming the athletes and visitors. The owners will also make the rounds at nearby inns.

''We'll ask the hotels to remind them that we're here and not to send everyone downtown,'' said Gesine Franchetti, who owns the place with her husband, John, a chef.

Most businesses on Fourth Avenue and elsewhere downtown are anticipating increased sales during the eight days the Games take place. But few owners said they'll do any major stockpiling of food or other goods.

''If it's a lot busier, we'll change our ordering,'' said George Gee, co-owner of Side St. Espresso. ''I'll start brewing coffee at 4 a.m. instead of 6.''

Some business owners were unaware that the Special Olympics are coming to town. Others shrugged their shoulders at the notion of thousands of visitors descending on Anchorage.

''I depend on Alaskans. They keep me alive,'' said Frank Hout, who owns 515 Cocktail Lounge, a Fourth Avenue bar heavily trafficked by locals.

Though few people doubt that the Special Olympics World Winter Games will be a wintertime boost to Anchorage, projections of the Games' impact have been wrong in the past, according to published reports.

The New York Times and the Hartford Courant have reported that the Special Olympics were a bust for the business community of New Haven. Business New Haven magazine surveyed local businesses after the Games and found that only 13 percent experienced a spike in sales. More than half of the 82 stores and restaurants surveyed said their business declined and 30 percent said sales were unchanged, according to the Hartford Courant. The major factor cited for the disappointing sales: Customers stayed away because of concerns about traffic.

The News and Observer of Raleigh, N.C., and a local business magazine also ran stories saying the Special Olympics were oversold as an economic engine. Among the reasons were low spectatorship and the fact that much food and too many services were donated to athletes and families so they didn't necessarily need to spend money in the community.

None of that bothers Ben Stevens, president and chief executive of the 2001 Special Olympics World Winter Games Alaska. It's the awareness, the good will and the positive relationships that emerge from the event, started by Eunice Shriver Kennedy in 1968, that are important, he said.

''We never really did it for an economic benefit of the community. That's not the reason for it,'' Stevens said. But he has no doubt Anchorage businesses will benefit anyway.

''If this event wasn't here, the hotels would be empty,'' Stevens said. And Anchorage has already received bricks-and-mortar benefits, such as the new ski chalet at Kincaid Park.

Perhaps even more important than the money the Special Olympics will bring is the international attention Anchorage will garner as a result, some of the city's promoters say. Journalists from more than 20 countries will cover the event, said Kathy Day, Special Olympics spokeswoman.

''You literally can't buy this type of exposure,'' said Jeff Pokorny, research director for the Anchorage Economic Development Corp.

If the city pulls off the Games without any major hitches, Anchorage could be writing its own ticket for expanded tourism and attracting other big national events, according to the Anchorage Convention & Visitors Bureau.

''It's the best and biggest thing to happen to Anchorage ever,'' said Bruce Bustamante, the bureau's chief executive. Communications director Joy Maples has fired off letters to a national list of writers enticing them to cover the Games and suggesting secondary stories they could write while here, such as on the city's trails, its cross-country skiing opportunities and easy access to wilderness.

But will attracting visitors to a remote, frozen and expensive-to-

get-to city without the charm of a Whistler, British Columbia, or the glitter of an Aspen, Colo., be a tough sell? Depends on how one views the place, it seems. It's a safe bet nobody comes to Anchorage to see Victorian architecture. But they don't fly to New York for mushing or downhill skiing either, observers say.

''I think many people would agree that Anchorage is a world-class winter sports destination. But there are probably several other activities for which it would not be viewed as a very attractive destination,'' said Steve Colt, assistant professor of economics at the University of Alaska Anchorage.

''I've been starting to study tourism more, and there's a danger in overselling something. We don't want to pretend the world is rosier than it is. On the other hand, we don't want to sell ourselves short,'' Colt said.

Anchorage's mountainous skyline is a world-class attraction anytime of year, Maples said. And she highlights the city's fine restaurants and accommodations, museums, unique Alpine skiing at sea level, as well as ice fishing, helicopter skiing and flightseeing opportunities.

It's a matter of viewing the city as a glass that is either half full or half empty, in Maples' view.

''I'm from L.A,'' Maples said with a smile.