Alaska's only professional sports franchise has likely exhausted its supply of mulligans.
The Alaska Aces open their 14th ECHL season Friday night with a decade-long history of remarkable success darkened by two consecutive non-playoff seasons and their most recent campaign shrouded in the first losing record in franchise history.
Not surprisingly, that decline has hit hard at the gate. Average attendance for home games at Sullivan Arena has dropped 17 percent in the last two seasons, including more than 12 percent last season. By comparison, that 17 percent decline is more than double the average league decline of 6.8 percent in that stretch.
Granted, hardcore Aces fans, aka The Cowbell Crew, were long a spoiled lot. The Aces in their first 11 ECHL seasons delivered three Kelly Cups, four appearances in the Cup Finals and seven trips to the conference finals. That was on top of a record five Brabham Cups for the best regular-season record, including a record four straight from 2011-14.
The Aces in those first 11 seasons never missed the playoffs and only once did not advance at least as far as the second round.
These last two seasons have sent the Aces stumbling into the What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately stage of their relationship with fans.
And they must stage a rink resurrection this season – otherwise, the exodus of fans will continue.
[Former UAF star Cody Kunyk arrives to bolster Alaska Aces lineup]
Regaining the faith of the, well, faithful, is particularly critical after last season's 27-38-7 slide, which collared Alaska with the third-worst record on the 28-team circuit.
The ownership group that rescued the Aces from bankruptcy back in the day surely isn't any happier about recent seasons than ticket buyers. Managing member Terry Parks has long said the group bought the Aces to save pro hockey in Anchorage and all it wanted to do on the accounting front was, at worst, break even. Privately held, the franchise does not release financial information, but it has surely bled money each of the last two seasons because, as Parks has noted several times, any profit the club generates usually comes from postseason revenue.
In any event, the owners are civic-minded, but they aren't a charity. That's not to say they would bail on the franchise if another disappointing season unfolds. But another six-month bummer would surely prompt sweeping changes. Not to put too fine a point on it, but sixth-year head coach Rob Murray, who guided the team to the 2014 Cup, needs a rebound season too.
The Aces have reason for optimism, and not just because the slate is clean at season's start.
Goaltending, long a pillar of the franchise, has been inadequate for two seasons now. With proven third-year pro Kevin Carr and intriguing rookie Michael Garteig in place, Alaska is set up better on paper than it has been since Gerald Coleman, now the goalie coach, backstopped it to the Cup in 2014.
[The Aces like the looks of their new goaltending tandem]
At forward, the Aces look solid. They've got new additions in former NHLer Tim Wallace of Anchorage and former UAF star center Cody Kunyk. Veteran winger Peter Sivak is a reliable scorer, excellent in all three zones and on special teams. Center Stephen Perfetto returns for his second pro season, poised to prosper. The line of Perfetto centering Sivak and Wallace looked especially dangerous in the Aces' last preseason game
The Aces also have center Tim Coffman, who when healthy delivers speed and scoring. Only problem is injuries have limited him to 48 or fewer games — two-thirds of a regular season — in each of his three Aces campaigns. Second-year center Ben Lake scored just seven goals in 66 games as a rookie, but had a goal in each of Alaska's three exhibitions and looked quicker, signaling he could furnish secondary scoring.
On defense, though, the Aces are thinner than a skate blade. They've only got six defensemen, the number that usually dress for a game, and they are young and inexperienced. Alaska could really use its captain, second-team All-ECHL blueliner William Wrenn of Anchorage, but he's still up with Toronto of the American Hockey League.
So, while the AHL gives – the Aces have Garteig, Kunyk, rookie center Daniel Moynihan and rookie defenseman Mackenze Stewart courtesy of affiliations with the NHL's Vancouver Canucks and the AHL's Utica Comets – the AHL also takes. That's just life two rungs below the NHL.
What the Aces definitely need to avoid this season is the disastrous start they endured last go-round. Alaska went 5-11-2 in its first 18 games – the one-quarter pole of the season – and never found its equilibrium.
Chasing the season, just like chasing a game, usually ends badly.
And more losing is literally the last thing the Aces can afford.
This column is the opinion of sports reporter Doyle Woody. Reach him at dwoody@alaskadispatch.com and follow him on Twitter at @JaromirBlagr.