Commentary

Enough excuses. Legislators have had plenty of time to fix Alaska's finances.

Alaska legislators are running the four-corner stall, the strategy perfected by the late coach Dean Smith at the University of North Carolina, where players kept passing the ball without putting it in what Sen. Ted Cruz famously referred to as the "basketball ring."

The shot clock did away with the endless stall in basketball, but the game never ends in Juneau, where deadlines come and go and difficult decisions can always be put off until after the next election.

Faced with a set of unpopular choices, all of which will make people and special interests angry, legislators are stalling to avoid raising taxes or tinkering with the Permanent Fund.

Worse yet, they appear to be content to keep some controversial bills stuck in committee, which would keep incumbents from taking a stand on fixing state finances.

Raising taxes and reducing the dividend are hardly the only things that will anger the voters this year, however.

If legislators try to leave Juneau without a fiscal plan that includes relatively minor personal and business tax increases and a systematic plan to use Permanent Fund earnings for government, don't be surprised if they are called back by Gov. Bill Walker for another round.

Because the prospect of added meetings in the Anchorage Legislative Information Office would be political poison — their plan is to rent the building for a few more months before leaving it — legislators would prefer meeting somewhere else, perhaps even in Juneau.

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The stalling tactic in the face of fiscal instability is confounded by the math, as lots of angry voters will recognize the calamity just ahead if the do-nothing movement prevails.

We are headed toward a lower bond rating, which is bad for the economy, and more uncertainty, which is also bad for the economy. Adding to the economic anxiety across Alaska is hardly a winning re-election message.

Some legislators have been digging deep into the excuse bag — they haven't had enough time, the governor has not explained the exact economic impact of each minor tax change, the proposals aren't fair and they can't possibly act before they are re-elected.

Some legislators put a lot of work into the complicated bills to reform Medicaid and the criminal justice system. But our lawmakers have had plenty of time to put state finances on a more stable and predictable course.

They've certainly spent enough time with guns on campus, Planned Parenthood, amending the U.S. Constitution and finding the right day to celebrate salmon.

The real holdup is not about how much time is available or the countless budget debates with officials from the Walker administration, but the unwillingness by many in the Legislature to vote on unpopular measures they oppose.

The truth is this is not a problem that is going away, so delay doesn't help. The state cannot continue to rely on its savings, exclude the Permanent Fund from the picture, and pretend this is sustainable even in the short term.

Future oil prices are anyone's guess, but even a 50 percent increase from the current level will leave a giant deficit.

The decisions for elected officials are difficult only for those who are too attached to the titles they carry.

If the state does not act now, there will be fewer options a year from now and the adjustment will be that much harder with a few more billion dollars gone.

With the collapse in oil revenue, the budget lawmakers approved this week relies on savings to pay most of the costs of state government and education in the fiscal year that starts in July.

There is no sign of a reversal in the trend. The Constitutional Budget Reserve and the Statutory Budget Reserve contained $10.4 billion 11 months ago. We have been spending roughly $12 million a day from savings since then, a total of $4.5 billion this fiscal year. This is a much higher withdrawal than was predicted a year ago.

The proposed budget approved by the Legislature would require spending $3.3 billion or more in savings to fund the government for the fiscal year that begins in four weeks.

The SBR is gone and the CBR is shrinking fast. A year from now there will not be enough left in it to fund government for the fiscal year that begins July 1, 2017.

The current forecast is that the CBR balance will be $2.7 billion on July 1, 2017. It would be foolhardy to drain the account to zero. The state should keep at least that amount in reserve for real emergencies.

That leaves the Permanent Fund earnings reserve as the only savings account  to pay for state government a year from now.

There is a compelling argument to set up a systematic plan to use fund earnings, cap the dividend and enact new taxes to spread the pain. The opposition will be lower if the public sees all special interests take a hit.

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Some legislators recognize the need to take action and reduce the uncertainty that threatens the economy. They should be demanding up-or-down votes on every tax proposal and the Permanent Fund "percent of market value" plan.

The legislators who want to keep their heads down and scrape through the next election should understand time is running out on the four-corner stall.

Dermot Cole is a Fairbanks columnist. One of his children is a deputy press secretary to Gov. Bill Walker. The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com.

Dermot Cole

Former ADN columnist Dermot Cole is a longtime reporter, editor and author.

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