Tracking COVID-19 in Alaska: 3 deaths and 621 new infections reported Friday

Alaska on Friday recorded three previously unreported deaths and 621 new coronavirus infections, according to the state Department of Health and Social Services.

The deaths involved an Anchorage man in his 70s, a Fairbanks man in his 80s and a Wasilla man in his 70s, the state health department said. Additionally, the state adjusted its data to reflect that a northern Kenai Peninsula Borough resident whose death was previously reported was actually from Wasilla, the department said.

In total, 157 Alaskans and one nonresident with COVID-19 have died since the pandemic began here in March, according to the Department of Health and Social Services. Alaska’s overall death rate per capita is one of the lowest in the country, but state officials say it’s difficult to compare Alaska to other states because of its vast geography and vulnerable health care system.

After weeks of surging daily case counts, Alaska as of Friday ranked fifth in the country for average daily cases per capita over the past week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rising case numbers have translated into increasing hospitalizations and deaths.

State health officials continue to ask Alaskans to avoid indoor gatherings with non-household members, and have said that most Alaskans who contract the virus get it from a friend, family member or co-worker.

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Last week included the state’s highest ever daily case tally, with 933 reported Saturday. As infections continue to rise, so does concern from officials about the potential for the state’s hospitals becoming overwhelmed as they continue to see major staffing issues.

By Friday, 128 people with COVID-19 were hospitalized in Alaska and another 10 people in hospitals were suspected to be infected with the virus, according to preliminary data. Seventeen people with COVID-19 were on ventilators. There were 37 ICU beds available statewide out of 130 staffed beds, and about 15.6% of the adult patients hospitalized around the state had tested positive for COVID-19.

Between the end of November and the first few days of December, COVID-19 cases continued to increase statewide, but the growth rate did slow over the past three weeks, state health officials wrote in a weekly report. They cautioned that new cases have overwhelmed the health department’s ability to report them and that recent case counts underestimate the true number of new COVID-19 infections statewide.

Community transmission statewide is still high, both in urban and rural communities, with almost every region in the state seeing a recent increase. The Matanuska-Susitna Borough saw cases more than double between Nov. 20 and Dec. 5 while the Kenai Peninsula Borough had “extremely high rates of transmission” in that timeframe as well, health officials wrote.

In Anchorage, case counts started to plateau this week but remained much higher than health officials would like, Janet Johnston, epidemiologist with the Anchorage Health Department, told reporters during a Friday briefing. Using a modeling tool, Johnston demonstrated that a 10-person gathering in Anchorage has a 37% chance of one person being infected with COVID-19.

“One of the reasons we’re so worried about case counts is that each case is a person who may experience both short- and long-term effects of COVID, and a person who may need care from the Anchorage health care system,” Johnston said.

COVID-19 hospitalizations at the city’s three hospitals have remained high in recent weeks, Johnston said, and as of Thursday there were only five intensive care unit beds available in Anchorage. Even if cases level off, Johnston said she expects to continue seeing more deaths from the virus, given that they can occur weeks after someone initially tests positive.

Of the 613 new cases reported by the state Friday among Alaska residents, there were 232 in Anchorage, 32 in Eagle River, four in Chugiak and one in Girdwood; 69 in Fairbanks and 16 in North Pole; 66 in Wasilla, six in Palmer, three in Willow and one in Sutton-Alpine; 27 in Kodiak; 20 in Bethel; 18 in Soldotna, 12 in Kenai, four in Nikiski, three in Seward, three in Sterling and two in Homer; seven in Juneau and one in Douglas; seven in Utqiagvik; five in Delta Junction and one in Tok; five in Unalaska; two in Chevak; one in Haines; and one in Ketchikan.

Among communities smaller than 1,000 people not named to protect privacy, there were 35 resident cases in the Kusilvak Census Area; six in the northern Kenai Peninsula Borough; six in the Bethel Census Area; five in the Valdez-Cordova Census Area; three in the Kodiak Island Borough; three in the North Slope Borough; two in the Fairbanks North Star Borough; two in the Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area; and two in the Mat-Su Borough.

The state reported eight cases among nonresidents: two in Fairbanks, one in Anchorage, one in Unalaska and four classified as unknown.

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The statewide test positivity rate was 6.5%, based on a seven-day rolling average. Rates over 5% can indicate inadequate broad testing, as well as increased community transmission.

While people might get tested more than once, each case reported by the state health department represents only one person.

It is not clear how many of the people who tested positive in Friday’s results were showing symptoms. The CDC estimates about a third of people with coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

— Morgan Krakow

[Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect that one of the Wasilla deaths in state numbers Friday was part of a data adjustment related to a previously recorded death.]