Education

Here's what happened to Alaska's class of 2005, according to economists

Nearly 7,000 students graduated from Alaska high schools in 2005 and state economists studied where most of them went over the next decade, releasing the findings in a report this month about the graduates' jobs, incomes and rates of higher education.

Yuancie Lee, an economist for the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development, wrote in the report that economists had data for about 6,000 of the graduates from the class of 2005.

They analyzed the graduates' college and career paths, providing a window into where Alaska's high school students go and what they do after graduation.

Here's what the study found:

• As time went on, the class of 2005 went to college in increasing numbers. But by 2015 less than half of those who chose to enroll had earned a four-year or two-year degree.

About 44 percent of the class of 2005 enrolled in college immediately after high school, 27 percent of them enrolling in a college in Alaska, the report said. Nationwide, about 69 percent of the class of 2005 went right to college, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

By 2015 in Alaska, the percentage of college-going students from the class of 2005 had risen to 78 percent. About 37 percent of that group earned a college degree by 2015, 8 percent were still enrolled in college and 33 percent had earned some college credit, but never a degree.

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Lee said economists did not have data on the high school graduates who attended vocational programs or completed an apprenticeship. Those former students were included in the "no college" group.

• Most of the high school graduates who went to college out of state had not returned to Alaska by 2014.

High school graduates who enrolled in an out-of-state college were the least likely to live in Alaska by 2014.

For the first seven years after high school graduation, those who never went to college were slightly less likely to stay in Alaska than their peers who went to an in-state college. By 2013, those two groups were equally likely to live in Alaska, according to the report.

• By 2012, the average wage of college graduates started to surpass that of their peers who didn't earn a college degree.

However, before that, those who didn't go to college earned more than those who did.

After college graduation, the average earnings of those with a degree started increasing fast. By 2015, they earned 16 percent more than the average wage of all Alaska workers.

• College graduates had a wider variety of jobs in 2015 than their peers, Lee said.

"This makes me wonder whether a college student has a wide variety of skills that can be used in different types of jobs, or if it's just that college offers a wider variety of programs or if it's a combination of the two," he said in an email.

"Also, does it make this group less susceptible to economic recessions that can hit certain occupations particularly hard?"

In 2015, the most common job for college graduates was in health care, primarily nursing, the report said. Other top occupations included work in education and engineering.

The most common jobs for those without a college degree were in construction and retail sales.

The report says that while more college graduates had higher-paying jobs in 2015, economists found that 2005 high school graduates with all levels of education held a variety of high-paying jobs, including in oil extraction.

Lee said economists were unable to identify when graduates worked for the federal government, joined the military or were self-employed. They also could not determine if Alaskans worked full or part time.

Data compiled using multiple sources

The Department of Labor and Workforce Development has now published two reports about the class of 2005. In 2012, the department published a similar report using the first five years of data.

Lee said the reports are in partnership with the Alaska Department of Education and Early Development, and they help the state gain insight into its future workforce.

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To complete the most recent study, he said, economists gathered data from sources including the state education department, Permanent Fund dividend records and national postsecondary education information.

The class of 2005 is the first student group the state department has studied at this level of detail, and Lee said economists would like to study other academic years. Economists may revisit the class of 2005 in another five years, according to the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

Lee said he did not know of any other states that completed similar studies to Alaska's class of 2005 report.

"Other states are beginning to do research similar to ours, but we can't compare ourselves to other states very accurately yet," he said.

Brian Laurent, data management supervisor with the Alaska education department, said the findings on the wide variety of paths taken by high school graduates could inform policy for public schools.

"Even just 10 years after graduation the paths that these students took were so different that it's hard to generalize the next steps for a high school graduate and then that becomes a policy question," he said. "What needs to be done in K-12 to best prepare students for whatever they may choose after graduation?"

Tegan Hanlon

Tegan Hanlon was a reporter for the Anchorage Daily News between 2013 and 2019. She now reports for Alaska Public Media.

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