Opinions

Netanyahu complicates US-Iran negotiations, but won't sink them

Today, America faces a diverse and complicated array of foreign policy issues starting with: ISIS, Iran, Ukraine and terrorism. All these issues have domestic entanglements, particularly as we approach our 2016 presidential election -- and the 2015 Israeli election. Probably before the American election, ISIS is scheduled for military defeats that will end its dreams of a new nation, posing a dilemma for Republicans. Ironically, American (and Iraqi) success depends in large part on Iran, a major force within the Iraqi government and its military.

Our current Iranian engagements rest on a legacy of distrust, a residue of America's history of interference in Iranian affairs. In the Cold War, our CIA operatives engineered the overthrow of Iran's democratically elected government, replacing it with an autocratic Shah. Time passed, our pick of autocrats is overthrown by a theocratic autocrat. An extreme faction within the revolution, violating all international law protocols, seized the American Embassy imprisoning the staff until President Reagan's negotiated release.

Surprisingly, given its government, Iran is among the most westernized of Middle East nations in such matters as superior treatment of women, aspirations for democracy -- a working parliament of sorts, a large middle class, a growing market economy and, until sanctions, economic success. Iran, more than twice the size of Iraq, is not the product of the breakup of the Ottoman Empire but heir to a great national tradition called Persia.

Understandably, Iran's people feel entitled to a place among the world powers -- every one of whom has a nuclear arsenal, as well as neighbors Pakistan and India, even pipsqueaks like North Korea. So under President Mahmoud ?Ahmadinejad, then the deputy leader, Iran began building a nuclear industry, planning nuclear power but also heading for bomb capability.

But Iran also signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The U.N. Security Council imposed sanctions. Ahmadinejad was fired, the bomb project stopped, though some would controvert this. Since Iran had said it never had nuclear weapons ambitions, it would be profoundly embarrassing to admit that they had a secret project, hence the balking at revealing history.

Now as Secretary of State John Kerry negotiates an agreement that can ease up sanctions, the possibility of a general improvement in relations looms as a possibility. Iran is on the brink of agreeing, seeing the economic gains as greater than the humiliation involved in acceding to demands from the United States. Kerry's standard of success would stall Iran two years or more away from making a deliverable bomb.

The fly in the negotiation ointment is Israeli's Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, who has declared Iran an "existential threat" to Israel as he approaches an election in just a few weeks in which his Likud party's right-wing coalition faces the possibility of defeat. Netanyahu has built an unprecedented alliance with Republican hawks trying to overthrow administration policy. It may well backfire in Israel's election. The alliance may create political and diplomatic problems for the president; it will not change administration policy.

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The premier's existential claim has been criticized as overdrawn, though Iran's current support for Israeli's enemies is obvious. Iran is supplying military support to Hezbollah, a predominantly Shiite political and military faction that controls Israel's border with Lebanon and is present to the Syrian east. But Hezbollah has been around a long time without being an "existential threat" to Israel, particularly considering America's unconditional backing. The likelihood of Iran attacking Israel with nuclear arms compares with the probability of North Korea attacking the United States: so foolhardy, even an idiot understands. Iran's supreme leader is no fool.

When Iraq was seen as its top enemy, Israel supplied nearly half a billion in military supplies to Iran supporting its defense against Iraq even while the United States was supporting Iraq militarily. While Iran's leader, as well as supporting Hezbollah, now refuse to recognize the legitimacy of Israel, that refusal is common to states with an official Islamic religion, a circumstance that is likely to remain until a Palestinian accord is signed. Politics aside, national interests, in common or in collision, will determine shifts in international relationships.

John Havelock, is a military veteran, former White House Fellow and retired professor of justice. His writings have included international affairs for many years.

The views expressed here are the writer's own and are not necessarily endorsed by Alaska Dispatch News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)alaskadispatch.com.

John Havelock

John Havelock is an Anchorage attorney and university scholar.

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