Oil prices aren't expected to change much in 2018, according to the most recent monthly energy forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In the short-term energy forecast released last week, the EIA said it expects West Texas Intermediate oil prices to average about $50 per barrel in 2018, compared to a predicted average of about $49 per barrel this year. Brent crude oil is expected to average $52 per barrel next year, according to the forecast, not much of a change from a forecast average of $51 this year.
In recent years, Alaska North Slope oil prices have been a bit higher than West Texas prices, and slightly below Brent.
Most of the state budget in Alaska is funded by oil revenue. When oil prices crashed from more than $100 per barrel in 2014, Alaska went into a tailspin. The state suffered a multibillion-dollar budget deficit and the local economy slipped into a recession. On Friday, Brent crude was priced at about $55 per barrel.
[Here's what low oil prices have done to Alaska's jobs picture]
The EIA forecast "seems to support the idea that we're not going to see a huge uptick in oil prices right away, in the near future," said Dan Stickel, chief economist at the Alaska Department of Revenue. "But at the same time, the fact that oil prices are stabilizing is a good thing."
He added that because there have already been so many layoffs and cost reductions in Alaska's oil and gas sector, companies might be able to deal with the prediction that a surge isn't coming.
"They're trying to make Alaska work at current prices," Stickel said. "So the fact that EIA's not expecting that prices are going to fall by another $10 or something, that's a good sign."
Nationally, crude oil production was estimated at an average of 9.2 million barrels per day in August, down slightly from the July average, according to the EIA forecast.
Just a few dollars away from the EIA predictions, the Alaska Department of Revenue in the spring predicted that North Slope oil prices would average $54 per barrel in fiscal year 2018.
U.S. natural gas production next year is expected to increase from 2017, the EIA forecast. The U.S. residential average price of natural gas is expected to stay about the same in 2018 as in 2017, the agency said.