Surveys: Alaskans feel the economic outlook is positive

Economists said Monday a new survey indicates Alaskans' outlook for the economy is perking up amid higher oil prices, new oil discoveries and changing federal policies, though people remain apprehensive about the recession.

If the consumer confidence survey results were a weather forecast, they'd say rainy today but improving conditions tomorrow and into the weekend, said Britteny Cioni-Haywood, an economist and head of the Alaska Division of Economic Development.

"This tells us people looking into the future think that things are going to get better," said Cioni-Haywood.

The division released the state-sponsored survey results, known as the Alaska Confidence Index, on Monday. Northern Economics compiles the quarterly report, based on a random survey of at least 800 Alaska households. A similar recent survey in Anchorage showed a similar trend.

The index in the statewide survey was 51.9 for the first three months of the year, indicating slight overall confidence in the economy, compared to a lack of confidence for results below 50.

Levels straddled 60 in 2014, before oil prices plunged severely along with state revenue and the oil-industry employment considered a bellwether of Alaska's economy.

The new number is down from the last quarter, but marks a year-to-year improvement for the second quarter in a row. The score was 49.2 a year ago.

People are feeling modestly more hopeful as job losses slow, Cioni-Haywood said. Other positive signs include rising oil prices and increased oil production, factors that encourage more business investment and increase state income.

Possibly adding to the uplift is talk of new oil discoveries, and Congress's decision in December approving oil and gas leasing in the potentially oil-rich coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, she said.

[Federal report finds 'huge' increase in North Slope oil potential.]

"That's probably all playing into the future expectations," she said.

A similar quarterly survey for Anchorage, released Monday by Anchorage Economic Development Corp. and compiled by Northern Economics, also shows slightly improving overall confidence in the economy from last year.

Key Bank funded the Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index, a survey of at least 350 households.

Close to a year ago, the overall index "bottomed out" at 47.5, indicating a lack of confidence in the economy, an AEDC statement said. Now, the overall index is 52.5, a slight lift from the earlier pessimistic view.

"We're happy to see little more optimism, but we have long way to go," said Bill Popp, president of AEDC.

Local economic confidence is still too low, Popp said, in part because of national forces that led to Anchorage closures of two Sam's Clubs and a Sears store.

Both the state and AEDC said people are still anxious about the economy in part because there has no been no long-term legislative solution to the state's fiscal shortfall.

Mouhcine Guettabi, assistant professor of economics at the University of Alaska Anchorage, said the improved outlook could encourage businesses to launch investments they had delayed. That could increase confidence further.

Guettabi said the broad federal tax cut approved in December might be one factor helping Alaskans' outlook, he said.

The Alaska economy could see further pain if, say, oil prices fall sharply again, he said. But the survey's increased confidence is another indication this Alaska recession is nothing like the huge 1980s crash, also sparked when oil prices plunged.

"I don't think we're in that realm, but we could see a few years of very slow or no growth," he said.